- Trinamool Congress rebellion revives talk of Delimitation Bill in Monsoon session
- Delimitation and Women's Reservation Bills failed in April due to lack of two-thirds majority
- 20 rebel Trinamool MPs plan to support NDA, potentially raising its tally above 300
The rebellion in the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress has revived talk that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government is likely to bring the Delimitation Bill again in the Monsoon session.
The session begins in the third week of July.
The Constitution (One Hundred and Thirty First Amendment) Bill, 2026 or the Delimitation Bill, which sought to redraw electoral boundaries based on 2011 census, was defeated in parliament in April as it fell short of the two-thirds majority required for its passage.
The NDA currently falls short of a two-thirds majority in the Lok Sabha - a deficit that prevented the passage of the Women's Reservation Constitution Amendment Bill in April. The Women's Bill had been tied up with the Delimitation Bill and that too as a result failed.
On Monday, Trinamool MP Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar claimed to have the support of 20 party MPs in the Lok Sabha, one more than required to split the party as per the anti-defection law. The rebel MPs assembled at Union Minister Bhupender Yadav's home for a meeting. The Trinamool has 29 MPs in the Lok Sabha.
The 20 rebel MPs plan to form a bloc and support the NDA government at the Centre. And if that happens, the NDA tally in the Lok Sabha will cross the 300 mark for the first time.
Talks are also underway to secure conditional support from MK Stalin-led DMK, which recently lost the Tamil Nadu polls and its old ally, the Congress, to Vijay-led TVK.
If this materialises, it will push NDA even closer to the two-thirds majority mark.
A senior BJP leader stated that the government is preparing to introduce several crucial bills during the Monsoon Session.
These include the Constitution Amendment Bill necessary to implement 33% women's reservation starting from the 2029 Lok Sabha elections, as well as significant measures like 'One Nation, One Election'. He added that the NDA is waiting to get closer to the two-thirds majority threshold before introducing these bills.
The Narendra Modi government has intensified efforts to secure a two-thirds majority ever since the Constitution Amendment Bill failed to pass in April, say party insiders.
Developments following the recent assembly elections in five states have bolstered the NDA's position.
The DMK's defeat in Tamil Nadu and its subsequent decision to sever ties with the Congress have increased the likelihood of the party's 22 MPs extending issue-based support, say sources.
The support from the rebel Trinamool MPs is both unexpected and critical to NDA's plans.
In terms of numerical strength, the two-thirds majority mark in the 543-member Lok Sabha is 362.
Currently, three seats are vacant - Basirhat, Shillong, and Nowgong -all of which fell vacant due to the death of the sitting MPs.
This brings the effective number required for a two-thirds majority in the Lok Sabha down to 360.
The NDA has the support of 293.
If the group of 20 Trinamool MPs extends its support to the NDA, this figure rises to 313. If the 22 DMK MPs offer support based on specific issues, the tally increases to 335. The government is also eyeing the nine MPs from the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT); a split within their ranks could secure the support of six additional MPs, potentially pushing the total to 341.
During the vote on the Constitution Amendment Bill in April, the NDA got the support of 298 MPs, meaning it secured some additional votes beyond its core strength. Factoring in these five extra votes, the NDA's potential tally could reach 348 - just 12 votes shy of a two-thirds majority.
The government hopes to bridge this gap through support from other small parties, independent MPs, and cross-voting.
Passing a Constitution Amendment Bill requires a special majority.
This entails the presence of at least half the total membership of the House, with the bill passing only if it secures a two-thirds majority of those present and voting.
During the April vote, 528 MPs were present, making the two-thirds majority mark 352. The government secured 298 votes against 230 opposing the bill, resulting in its defeat by a margin of 54 votes. The government has now significantly narrowed that gap.
The NDA is also nearing a two-thirds majority in the Rajya Sabha.
The Trinamool had 13 MPs there, one of whom - Sukhendu Sekhar Roy - has resigned. He could now re-enter the Rajya Sabha representing the BJP.
Other Trinamool MPs might follow this same formula - resigning and returning to the Rajya Sabha via by-elections.
The NDA has already crossed the 150-seat mark in the Upper House.
The eight DMK MPs there could also extend conditional support. The threshold for a two-thirds majority in the Rajya Sabha is 164. In this scenario, with the support of other smaller parties, the NDA appears to be inching closer to this figure as well.
