The results of the national election have shown a mirror to People's Democratic Party and given a clear edge to the National Conference in Kashmir valley and the BJP in Jammu region. But whether the state election will be held in November depends on the centre's policy and the dynamics that will unfold in the next two months.
The biggest takeaway of the Lok Sabha results in Jammu and Kashmir is that the tallest leader of the PDP, Mehbooba Mufti, herself lost and came third in Anantnag. Even the Congress candidate received more votes than her.
"This is bad news for her as PDP is a regional party, but it lost its vote share drastically across Kashmir valley due to her alliance with the BJP," said a senior bureaucrat.
In Anantnag, which had been a PDP bastion for decades, Ms Mufti got a little over 30,000 votes out of the total 1.14 lakh polled. Congress candidate Ghulam Ahmed Mir got over 32,000 votes and the winner from the National Confrence, Hasnain Masoodi, received over 39,000 votes.
BJP candidate Sofi Yusuf got 2,436 votes while People's Conference candidate Ch Zafar Ali got 1,555 votes.
The PDP performed its worst in Baramulla, where it came fourth with a little over 52,000 out of 4.4 lakh votes polled. The first position was taken by the National Conference candidate, followed by Sajjad Lone's Peoples Conference candidate. Even Engineer Rashid, who stood as an independent, received 1.8 lakh votes.
In Srinagar, the PDP just got 36,700 votes out of 1.8 lakh votes polled. The seat was won by National Conference leader Farooq Abdullah.
"State assembly elections may take place in November but we see the trends... We can say that the 2008 situation may arise again with National Conference getting maximum seats in Kashmir valley and BJP in Jammu," a senior functionary of the government said.
"Regional parties will seek vote on anti-Modi stance while BJP would be asking people to throw dynasts out," he added.
Another senior government functionary said the killing of terrorist Zakir Musa during Ramzan shows the centre will keep pressure on terror and sustain its aggressive stance.
"Narrative in valley is changing and next two months will play a crucial role in shaping the future of Kashmir," an officer said.
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