10 Reasons Why BJP Improved Its Karnataka Standing

Karnataka Governor on Wednesday evening invited BJP's Yeddyurappa to form government and gave him 15 days to prove majority on the floor of the House.

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10 Reasons Why BJP Improved Its Karnataka Standing

Yeddyurappa has been given 15 days to prove majority in the floor of the House.

1. The most important reason is that the BJP solved the problem of its  factions and this time it competed with  BS Yeddyurappa's party back in its fold and the Bellary faction (which fought independently last time) also reunited with the mothership. This alone gave the BJP an extra 16.7% of the vote and an extra 65 seats (Karnataka has 224).

2. The intensive campaign by Prime Minister Narendra Modi galvanised the BJP cadre and gave the party a push in the last stages of the battle.

3. The Hindu-Muslim polarisation in the coastal belt. This gave the BJP an extra 15.7% swing in votes in this area and 12 extra seats.

4. This religious polarisation also impacted the 24 seats where the percentage of Muslim voters is highest (above 25%-50% per seat). These 24 seats are mainly in towns and cities dotted around the state. The voters of the Hindus in these seats consolidated and the BJP gained an 18.6% swing in these seats.

5. The campaign by Yogi Adityanath in these areas helped the BJP among Hindu voters especially the upper castes.

6. The improvement of the Vokkaliga support for the Janata Dal Secular or JD(S) and away from the Congress reduced the Congress vote in the Vokkaliga areas of the south. Both the JD(S) and the BJP gained from the Congress loss of Vokkaliga votes.

7.  Siddaramaiah's decision to call for minority religion status for the Lingayats backfired and united the Lingayats further which helped the BJP perform strongly in the 62 Lingayat seats (it won 37 of them).

8. The role of money power and handouts to voters - cash as well as alcohol - hit a new high in these elections. Local reports suggest that the amount of money the BJP had was 5 times higher than the Congress (though we could not verify this independently).

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9. The Muslim vote shifted away from the JD(S) mainly because of the allegations that the JDS has secretly allied with the BJP. In seats where the JD(S) was strong but saw a dent in Muslim vote, the BJP won those seats.

10. The youth - especially  young Lingayat voters - are still a strong vote base for Modi. The PM's popularity amongst the youth is solid.
 

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