Scenario I:

If the Madras High Court cancels the disqualification of the 18 lawmakers, the Tamil Nadu government could collapse as it would not have the requisite numbers to retain the government. The ruling AIADMK has 116 legislators in the 234-member assembly (excluding the speaker), which is one short of the majority mark.

Scenario II:

If the Madras High Court upholds the disqualification of the lawmakers, then the strength of the assembly would come down to 215 and would not be a threat to the state government. However, by-polls for the 18 seats would then be held, which would be a big test for the AIADMK.

Scenario III: Split Verdict-

The case is being decided by a two-judge bench comprising of Chief Justice Indira Banerjee and Justice M Sundar. If the verdict is split, then the case would be referred to a larger bench, which would not pose an immediate threat to the government.

Scenario IV:

The court could also ask the Speaker to reconsider his decision. If the court decides to give such a verdict, then the speaker, P Dhanapal, could rethink his decision on some rebels, if they express regret. These rebel lawmakers could then lend their support to  E Palaniswami and bring relief to the party.