Election Results To Determine Movement In Sensex, Nifty: Experts

Exit polls along with the final verdict of the 2019 general elections will keep the equity investors on tenterhooks in the coming week, according to experts. The outcome of the seven-phase 2019 general elections will be announced on Thursday, May 23. Apart from general election results, any developments on the global trade front and tensions in the Middle East will be other major drivers for the markets. The corporate earnings season will play an important role in determining the equity indices' movement, they add.

"Now investors are closely eyeing exit polls, which is scheduled on 19th May. And this may lead to volatility during the week starting May 20," said DK Aggarwal, chairman and managing director, SMC Investments and Advisors.

This week, the pre-election rally in domestic market was cut short by escalation in trade tensions between US and China, along with mixed Q4 results, and anticipation of a consumption slowdown ahead.

"After many days of consolidation, Nifty has bounced back from a low of 11,100 which seems to be an intermediate support for the market," said Vinod Nair, head of research, Geojit Financial Services. 

The NSE Nifty climbed 128.25 points - or 1.14 per cent - this week, while the S&P BSE Sensex added 467.78 points (1.25 per cent).

"However, next week is eventful given exit polls and final verdict. Market is likely to be indecisive till final outcome is known, while extension of volatility cannot be ruled out," he added.

Bharat Forge, Glaxosmithkline Pharma, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, Tata Motors, DLF, Jindal Steel and Power, BEML, India Cements and NTPC are expected to announce their earnings for the January-March period during the week.

The rupee deprecated by 31 paise to close at 70.23 against the US dollar on a weekly basis, compared with its close of 69.92 against the greenback the previous week.

"Next week is a make or break on account of domestic elections exit polls and actual results... markets are factoring a BJP led coalition coming to power, any different result can be a big disappointment. A positive outcome may lead to a moderate rally in markets," said Sajal Gupta, head forex and rates, Edelweiss Securities.

He also said the rupee is expected to trade between 69.20 and 70.80 against the dollar.

In terms of technical charts, the NSE Nifty could head towards the next major supports of 11,227-11,180 points in the week.

"Technically, with the Nifty reversing the recent uptrend and entering into a new downtrend, the index could now head towards the next major supports of 11,227-11,180 in the coming week," said Deepak Jasani, head of retail research at HDFC Securities.

"Any pullback rallies could find resistance at 11,358-11,457."