This Article is From Jun 17, 2012

RBI policy, Greek polls likely to keep stocks volatile

RBI policy, Greek polls likely to keep stocks volatile

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  • "Treat knee-jerk market rallies with caution," Neil MacKinnon, a global macro strategist at VTB Capital, advised clients, saying there was still too many questions about Europe's debt crisis to celebrate the Greek vote.

Stock markets are likely to see high volatility this 'action-packed' week in view of RBI's monetary policy review and the impact of Greek elections on global investor sentiment.


Progress of monsoons in the country will be another key factor that will impact investor sentiment.


"All eyes are on the Greece election outcome which will shape the likely future of the euro-zone and the economy. Since, global events continue to influence our markets, the outcome will have significant effect on the domestic bourses," said Shanu Goel, Research Analyst at Bonanza Portfolio.


"Coupled with RBI monetary policy on Monday, market is expected to be highly volatile," she added.


Besides, the G-20 summit will be watched keenly by marketmen.


As these key events unfold, markets are expected to see bouts of volatility, brokers said.


"Nifty is having resistance at 5,165 and 5,195 and if the RBI cuts rates and the Greek elections are in favour of bulls then we may see considerable gains in the market.


"RBI may cut the repo rate by 25 basis points and even a 0.25 per cent or 25 bps cut in CRR is expected," said Alex Mathews, Head Research, Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services.


Meanwhile, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee has also expressed confidence that the central bank would "adjust the monetary policy" to address the challenges before the economy.


Most experts feel that more or less the market has already factored in 0.25 per cent or 25 basis points cut in both repo rate (at which banks borrow money from RBI) and cash reserve ratio -- the portion of deposits that banks are required to keep with the Reserve Bank.


According to Kishor Ostwal, CMD, CNI Research, "Rate cut looks certain as the economy is going through tough patches. The next resistance for Nifty is at 5,155 which is very near and if this is crossed on Monday we may see Nifty rising to 5,280 to 5,300 very fast."


Meanwhile, Angel Broking said in a report, "Global developments in Greece, Spain and the euro-zone summit will keep markets volatile in June."


Meanwhile, the BSE 30-scrip benchmark Sensex gained for the second consecutive week by adding another 231 points on expectations that RBI will cut interest rates at its mid- quarterly monetary policy review tomorrow to prop up a slowing economy.