Rajan's Tough Inflation Stance Risks Stand-Off With Government

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan has set himself a target of lowering consumer inflation and is even ready to raise rates to achieve it, risking friction with the new government if he is seen as overstepping.

Mr Rajan, well known within the RBI for pragmatism, now must work with the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which understands the need for - and wants - lower inflation, but doesn't see the value in hard targets.

The governor's people skills may be tested when Finance Minister Arun Jaitley attends Sunday's RBI board meeting in Delhi, representing a government that is equally keen on boosting an economy that has just had two consecutive years of sub-5 percent growth.

The meeting comes after Mr Rajan, the star economist appointed by the previous Congress government, surprised markets after the RBI's policy review on Tuesday by establishing in clear terms that the RBI would get consumer inflation down to 8 percent by January 2015 and 6 percent one year later.

Officials familiar with RBI's stance warn that Mr Rajan is committed to those goals, even if he has yet to receive explicit political backing.

"If we don't get support from the government, then we have to hit it harder," a senior official told Reuters.

"If inflation doesn't come down as projected and supply-side measures are not taken, interest rates may need to go up to reach the 6 percent goal."


Meeting that target won't be an easy feat in a country with unpredictable monsoon rains and dependent on oil imports. The consumer price index spiked to 11.2 percent in November before three interest rate hikes from Mr Rajan helped bring inflation down to 7.3 percent in June.

Mr Rajan will need to tread carefully in pushing the government into action, according to analysts. Although the RBI is not statutorily independent from the finance ministry it has long enjoyed wide latitude in policy-making.

Mr Rajan has already displayed some of his pragmatic streak by cutting the mandatory bond reserve requirements for lenders in a bid to help the government accomplish its goal of unleashing credit.

"The government is RBI's owner, so the RBI has to consult with the government on its executive decisions," an official said, adding: "Controlling inflation is the primary responsibility of the central bank and it is a matter of convincing the government that doing so is for the interest of the government and the country."

Mr Jaitley, in public comments, has acknowledged the importance of bringing down inflation, and said he is committed to working with the RBI while taking limited action such as curbing hoarding of food staples.

But the Modi government has yet to unveil any substantial reforms even after Mr Jaitley surprised markets by committing to meet an ambitious fiscal deficit target of 4.1 percent of gross domestic product set by the previous Congress-led government.

Nor has the government yet endorsed the inflation targets first unveiled in January by a central bank panel led by Deputy Governor Urjit Patel.

Copyright: Thomson Reuters 2014