The spot Nifty edged above the key 6,600 levels for the first time on Wednesday, but a reading of the derivative data suggests that the expiry for March series due on Thursday is likely to be between 6,500-6,600.
Open interest (OI) in the present month (March series) Nifty call options is 3.37 crore, while OI in put option is 4.87 crore. The PCR (Put Call ratio) comes out to be 1.45. OI in the near month (April series) Nifty call option is 1.24 crore and OI in put option is 1.39 crore for a PCR of 1.12
The above data suggests that the overall OI in puts is much more than calls. So, big traders are optimistic about markets.
However, an analysis of 6,600 and 6,500 strike options of Nifty indicates a close between 6,500 - 6,600 on expiry day due on Thursday. For the March series, 6,600 call option OI is 61.17 lakh, while OI in put option is 47.80 lakh. The PCR is 0.78. Nifty 6,500 call option OI is 34.91 lakh and put option OI is 60.17 lakh, so PCR stands out to be 1.72.
The above data suggests higher amount of puts are written at 6,500 strike and less puts are written at 6,600 strike for March expiry. So most likely expiry may happen between 6,500 - 6,600.
(OI data based on closing figures as on Tuesday)