Moody's Lowers India GDP Growth Projection Amid COVID-19 Crisis: 10 Points

India GDP Growth 2020: Moody's has projected India's economic growth at 0.2 per cent in 2020, and expects it to rebound to 6.2 per cent in 2021.

Moody's Lowers India GDP Growth Projection Amid COVID-19 Crisis: 10 Points

India GDP Growth Forecast: Moody's expects growth to reboundto 6.2% in 2021

Credit ratings major Moody's on Tuesday cut its forecast for GDP or gross domestic product expansion in India on account of the economy fallout from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, which has pushed world business into a standstill. Moody's Investors Service now projects the country's economy to grow 0.2 per cent in 2020, marking a sharp downward revision compared to its projection of 2.5 per cent in March this year.

Here are 10 things to know about Moody's estimates for India GDP growth:

  1. Moody's, however, expects the country's economic expansion to rebound to 6.2 per cent in the next year.

  2. Many groups of economists have lowered their projections for the economy sharply in the past few days. While some expected meagre growth, others have highlighted the possibility of contraction in worst case scenario.

  3. "India extended a nationwide lockdown to 40 days from 21 days, but relaxed restrictions in rural areas to facilitate agricultural harvesting in the second half of April," Moody's said. "The country has determined that many of these areas are free of the virus."

  4. Moody's further said that the government "plans a phased opening of different regions while continuing to carry out identification and contract tracing".

  5. In its report, titled "Global Macro Outlook 2020-21 (April 2020 update)", Moody's forecast a contraction of 5.8 per cent for the G-20 advanced economies as a group in 2020. Moody's predicted that the ongoing coronavirus lockdowns will now see the G20 group of major economies contract 4 per cent this year before bouncing back 4.8 per cent in 2021.

  6. The agency also followed S&P in slashing its oil forecasts. It now expects benchmark Brent prices to average $35 per barrel and U.S. WTI crude to average $30 per barrel this year before ticking up to $45 and $40 respectively next year as economies perk up.

  7. Without a coordinated global effort to bring and keep the rate of COVID-19 infections down in all countries, Moody's said the risk of a resurgence in the virus and more severe economic outcomes was "high".

  8. The economic costs of coronavirus crisis amid the near shutdown of the global economy are accumulating rapidly, it said.

  9. It expects G-20 advanced economies as a group to contract by 5.8 per cent in 2020.

  10. Even with a gradual recovery, 2021 real GDP in most advanced economies is expected to be below pre-coronavirus levels. China's economy is forecast to grow by 1 per cent in 2020.