Monsoon Will be Normal Despite El Nino, Maintains Skymet

Contradicting the government's forecast of a below normal monsoon, private weather forecaster Skymet maintains that India will receive normal rainfall in 2015.

While the Indian Meteorological Department or IMD has predicted that monsoon rain is likely to be 88 per cent of the long period average rainfall in 2015, the Skymet estimates stand at 102 per cent.

Skymet says despite El Nino conditions prevailing, the country is unlikely to face a drought.

"If the El Nino continues from the last year, then the probability of a drought in the successive year is actually low and you can go back to as far as 1880, it doesn't really happen - that is statistically," Jatin Singh, founder and CEO, Skymet Weather Services said. (Watch)

El Nino, or a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific, can prompt drought in Southeast Asia and Australia and heavy rains in South America, hitting production of food such as rice, wheat and sugar.

The IMD has said that there is a 90 per cent probability that El Nino conditions will continue during the monsoon.

"This is only the third day of the monsoon, it is only the third day of June, there's a lot that's going to happen so we need to hold on to our horses now," Mr Singh said.

Monsoon typically covers half of the country by the middle of June, and the entire country by mid-July, helping farmers to plant summer crops such as rice, soybean, cane and cotton.

"June (will be) slightly sluggish. I think it'll all pan out well after this. It should be the second half of June that should be decent and then July also looks good," Mr Singh said.

The government's weather department expects monsoon rain to hit the Kerala coast by July 5. Last month, the weather office had forecast that the monsoon would arrive on the Kerala coast on May 30, give or take four days.

Skymet in April had said it expected rains to hit the Kerala coast by May 27.

(With Reuters inputs)