- Global economy expected to grow at 3.7% rate between 2018-2020
- China to be top contributor to global GDP by large margin in near term
- US share of global growth expected to fall from 12.9% to 8.5% in 2023
According to forecasts released earlier this month, the global economy is expected to achieve an annual GDP growth rate, as measured in constant dollars, of 3.7 per cent between 2018-2020 before dipping to 3.6 per cent between 2021-2023 and, in turn, pass the $100 trillion mark around 2022.
Bloomberg used International Monetary Fund projections, adjusted for purchasing power parities, to dissect where the growth will come from.
Charted below are the top 20 most significant current players:
Even though China's growth rate is expected to continue to slow, and in fact, is expected to grow at a slower pace than that of the US in 2040, according to long-term projections by the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), China will still be the top contributor to global GDP growth by a large margin in the near term. China's share of global GDP growth is expected to rise from 27.2 per cent to 28.4 per cent by 2023.
The US, while still expected to contribute a sizable portion of global growth, will see its share shrink as the democratization of GDP growth spreads. Simply put, other countries will take a larger slice of the global GDP pie. The US share of global growth is expected to fall from 12.9 per cent to 8.5 per cent in 2023.
Meanwhile, India's grasp of the second largest share will become more clearly defined. India's share of global GDP growth is expected to rise from 13 per cent to almost 16 per cent -- a jump of three percentage points. In the fourth spot will be Indonesia with an expected 3.7 per cent share in 2023. The top five will be rounded out by Brazil.
The United States isn't the only major economy making room for new growth engines, most noticeably Iran, Turkey, Indonesia, and Bangladesh will gain. G7 members such as Japan, Germany, Italy and Canada are all expected to be less of a factor in global GDP growth.
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