Home Loan EMIs May Fall by Up to Rs 8,000 Soon

Home Loan EMIs May Fall by Up to Rs 8,000 Soon
Home loan consumers, struggling under the burden of high EMIs, finally have a reason to smile after RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan cut repo rate by 0.25 per cent on Thursday.

State-run United Bank and Union Bank have already cut their base rates - the lowest lending rates - and other lenders are likely to follow suit.

"We believe that this cut may be just the beginning of a rate easing cycle... Base rate is expected to fall faster than expected," said Arundhati Bhattacharya, chairman of State Bank of India.

A 0.25 per cent reduction in base rate will lower the EMI on a Rs 50 lakh home loan with tenure of 20 years (average ticket size for metro cities) by Rs 831 per month. Over the next 12 months, repo rate is likely to come down by a full percentage point, analysts say, which means the amount of saving could be in the range of Rs 3,000-Rs 4,000 per month.

The good news doesn't end here. With inflation expected to stay low for a long period of time because of the crash in global commodity prices, interest rates in India are likely to trend lower for a considerable period of time, analysts say.

It's difficult to believe, but in July 2010, SBI - the country's biggest lender - gave loans at an interest rate of just 7.50 per cent. That's 2.5 per cent lower than current rate. (See SBI's historical base rates)

So, over the next couple of years, EMI for a 50 lakh loan could come down by as much as Rs 8,000 per month - enough to pay the EMI for a hatchback such as Maruti Swift.

It is for these economic cross-linkages that government had been demanding an interest rate cut for the last many months. Lower interest rates will not only attract more consumers into buying properties and cars, but the substantial saving for existing customers would trigger discretionary spending on a large scale, which will boost demand in the economy.

The rate cut would put more money in the hands of consumers and help revive investment," said Finance Minister Arun Jaitley.

Increased demand will lead big corporates to invest in capacity expansion, leading to creation of more jobs and will further help economy.

"In our view, the sharper decline in cost of capital will help to provide further support to the domestic demand and GDP growth," said Morgan Stanley.

Automakers, who have struggled over the past three years, will likely gain more than property developers because of the added advantage of falling fuel prices. Global crude prices are down 50 per cent since the highs of June 2014 resulting in substantial drop in domestic petrol and diesel prices.

Unlike home loans - which generally have a floating rate - most auto loans carry a fixed rate. So, existing customers are unlikely to benefit from falling interest rates, but new buyers can benefit from lower rates over five/seven year tenure.

Many other types of loans ranging from personal loans to small-ticket size loans for consumer durables (for bikes, LED TVs, etc.) will come down as banks start reducing base rates.

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