Can the upcoming Union Budget, to be presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in Parliament on July 5, trigger a bull rally? Some analysts say it is possible. In the February 1 Interim Budget, the government reduced taxes for the middle class and announced Rs 75,000-crore income scheme for small farmers. That helped the stock markets move higher, after months of detecting investor confidence in the aftermath of the IL&FS crisis - also causing concerns about a contagion effect on other sectors - and geopolitical worries.
As of July 1, the Sensex has gained 3,429.81 points - or 9.46 per cent - since the February 1 Interim Budget announcements and the Nifty has advanced 1,034.65 points, or 9.55 per cent. That meant a dramatic recovery compared to a fall of 6.18 per cent and 7.27 per cent for the Sensex and Nifty in the past five months before the Interim Budget, as the market sentiment was shaken in the aftermath of default by IL&FS and the tight liquidity conditions that prevailed thereafter.
The markets appear to be in an uptrend at the current juncture, according to some analysts.
"Recent behavioural parameters have affirmed the positive outlook. We expect the index (Nifty) to scale new highs in the near term and test 12,300-12,400 odd levels," said Sahaj Agrawal, head of derivatives, Kotak Securities.
However, some volatility can be expected in the run-up to Budget, say others.
"Participants should prepare themselves for a volatile week, citing list of events and data which are lined up," said Jayant Manglik, president, Religare Broking.
Mr Manglik expects the 50-scrip benchmark Nifty index to trade in a broader range of 10,500-12,000 during the week. "We expect the Budget 2019 to be pro-growth given the decelerating economic growth and rising unemployment rate."
"A budget rally could be in the offing and aggressive long positions can be initiated. Support for the index is seen at 11,500. A bull call spread can be initiated at current levels," Kotak Securities' Mr Agrawal added.
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