All Eyes Turn To US Inflation Data, But Tongues Wag About Crypto Crash
All eyes are turning to the latest US inflation figures, but all tongues are wagging about the crash in crypto.
The October snapshot of US consumer prices comes at a slightly more nervous juncture for markets than even a few days ago.
Not only has the FTX collapse triggered turmoil across the crypto universe, Meta Inc. laying off 13 per cent of its workforce has brought the tech and economic outlook back into sharp focus.
US rates market have been comfortable pricing an implied terminal rate above 5 per cent, to be reached some time in the middle of next year, for over a week.
Sticky inflation could push these expectations even higher, but how much more will the Fed really tighten without slamming the economy?
Economists expect monthly and annual core readings to dip from September, and the headline annual rate to fall to 8.0 per cent from 8.2 per cent. That would be the lowest since February.
As terminal rate forecasts have plateaued since the turn of the month, Treasury yields have been pretty rangebound and the dollar has eased back from its recent 20-year peak. Perhaps macro traders are laying the ground for a move.
Meanwhile, there have been moves aplenty in other markets. Bitcoin sank 10 per cent on Tuesday and 12 per cent on Wednesday to a two-year low below $16,500. Thursday marks a year to the day since its all-time peak of $69,000. Not a particularly happy anniversary.
Could cratering crypto be spilling over to tech? The web of holdings and investments between crypto and tech is murky, but real.
Tesla shares sank to a two-year low on Wednesday, and Cathie Wood's ARKK Innovation ETF slumped to a five-year low - it is down 80 per cent from its peak last year. Meta shares may have surged as investors cheered the 11,000 job cuts, but dismissals on that scale are a clear health warning for sector.
Markets may be getting twitchy. For the first time in a month, the VIX 'fear index' rose two days in a row.
Three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:
- US inflation (October)
- Fed's Waller, Harker, Logan, Daly, George and Williams speak
- Germany current account (September)