Hunted in the Sahel Desert, Jihadists Target Urban Areas

Nouakchott:

Concerns are rising that a deadly jihadist attack on a popular nightclub in Mali's capital may foreshadow moves by extremist groups that have been routed in the desert to sneak operatives into towns to mount strikes.

Responsibility for the March 7 nightclub attack in Bamako by a heavily-armed gunmen that left three Malians, one French national and a Belgian dead was claimed by al-Murabitoun, a jihadist group run by Algerian militant Mokhtar Belmokhtar, whose fighters were pushed from northern Mali into the barren Sahel by the French-led military intervention launched in 2013.

But while that campaign was credited with decimating jihadist militias and driving them far from populated regions they formerly controlled, the Bamako strike has some experts worried the extremists are now changing tactics.

Rather than relying in their numbers to impose blanket brutality on areas they hold, far-flung extremist leaders may be preparing to dispatch attackers into urban zones to stage surprise strikes.

A Mauritanian expert on regional militias, Isselmou Ould Salihi, says the nightclub attack is a clear signal that jihadist leaders want to export their violent campaign into city centres.

"With this attack in the heart of Bamako, al-Murabitoun has marked the urbanisation of its jihadist action, after having been beaten in the desert," he said, warning if authorities cannot find a way to prevent such strikes, they "could have very grave consequences for the future of tourism and of peace in Mali."

Belmokhtar is thought to have sought refuge in Libya after losing his former stronghold in northern Mali - the area where his local lieutenant, Ahmed al-Tilemsi, was killed by French forces in 2014.

Al-Murabitoun said the Bamako nightclub assault was staged to avenge al-Tilemsi's death.

On Friday, one of the suspects in that attack was killed as Malian special forces stormed the building he had lived in for several weeks - he was identified as the flatmate of the gunman who attacked the nightclub.

Peace accord

Evidence that the attackers had trained outside Bamako - and the presence of countless refugees who fled jihadist-controlled northern Mali - has sparked fears other potential or sleeper assailants may be ordered to stage similar strikes in future.

Renewed attacks are also occurring in northern cities. On March 8, for example, a peacekeeper were killed when militants fired more than 30 rockets at a UN base in Kidal.

According to French Sahel-Sahara specialist Andre Bourgeot, the urban strikes - and especially the attack in Bamako - "demonstrate that armed jihadist groups, in particular al-Murabitoun, can take action anywhere."

The risk of deployment of small teams or individuals to urban centres is all the more worrying following assaults in Paris and Copenhagen intent on striking a blow for Al-Qaeda affiliates or Islamic State radicals.

And with Nigerian extremist group Boko Haram having recently allied itself to IS after Libyan radicals took that step earlier, the spectre of myriad jihadist groups in the Sahel replicating the move looms ever larger.

One reason for such concerns is rooted in the accord signed March 1 by the Malian government seeking to restore peace and stability between the north and south of the country.

Tuareg and other separatist groups in northern Mali are now under pressure to also adopt the treaty, and end years of strife between the upper and lower halves of the country.

But even if most rebel groups do sign, there is considerable concern dissidents among rank-and-file militants will break away, representing an opportunity for jihadist groups to federate them into a wider violent force.

"If the accord is signed, heads of these movements risk being discredited, resulting in a rebellion without leaders," said Pierre Boilley, director of the Institute of the African World (IMAF) - noting a similar situation occurred in northern Mali that allowed jihadist groups take over the area in 2012.

For that reason, the only real remedy to that threat is for political and military leaders in the south to acknowledge and end periodic massacres of separatist groups in the north, said a Malian businessman who asked not to be identified.

Autonomist passions and arguments must be further undercut, he said, by the central government finally devoting significant funding to develop the disadvantaged north.

"As long as there are massacres of innocents in the north, people will continue rebelling," he said. "Pardon must be asked for, and the north must be developed so that people will have something to lose in the event they take up arms."