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| India Pakistan- Time to Talk? |
| Saturday January 16, 2010 |
| The year has begun on a bloody note for Pakistan. The almost daily cycle of violence didn't stop long enough for Pakistanis to wish each other a peaceful 2010. Terrorists struck on New Year's Day during a volleyball tournament, killing over 90 people. And the spiral of death and terror continues into the new decade, leaving the ordinary Pakistani beleaguered by violence, just 2 years after an election that promised them relief from dictatorship, and a return to the ideals of democracy, justice and human rights. Today, as Pakistan readies to mark the second anniversary of that election, perhaps the big plus is that the government hasn't fallen under the pressure of its own political intrigue, a once again assertive military and Taliban sponsored chaos. But in the current climate their survival alone, means little. As Pakistani soldiers die fighting their own countrymen in the lawless frontier province, the army and the government in Islamabad can't shake off the growing criticism of being seen as errand boys fighting America's war. A record number of Pakistani civilians have died in last year's fighting. A total of 12,600 people have died violent deaths in Pakistan last year according to Pakistan's Institute for Peace Studies. Over 3000 of them in terrorist attacks. These numbers will only rise. As casualties grow, and a massive internal refugee crisis confronts Islamabad, its increasingly clear that the military establishment in Rawalpindi is looking for ways to divert attention to age-old, more uniting ideas in this climate of conflict within its own borders. What better way than raising the rhetoric, and the violence against India? As radicalization takes root in the backdrop of the war in the frontier, they have a large audience. The home minister, P Chidambaram confirmed that 2 terrorists killed in a 22 hour- long encounter in the heart of Srinagar last week, were in touch with their Pakistani handlers. President Zardari, kicked off the new year by abandoning his own stated policy of focusing on improving trade ties with India rather than being bogged down by Kashmir, and returned to a sharper pitch. Pakistani media has begun reporting the ongoing stalemate between India and Pakistan as a sign of "increased hostility" from Delhi, using comments made in a closed session by Army chief General Deepak Kapoor of India's need for military preparedness on the western and eastern fronts as a sign of this. Even though technically, for a military man General Kapoor was stating a given. If anything, it was the idea of preparing the eastern front (the India-China border) that should have been more attention worthy. As advocates of bilateral peace gathered in Delhi this week the challenge for them was to navigate through this heightened pitch and the year long deadlock. 2009 has seen a concerted effort to bring diplomatic pressure upon Islamabad to deliver justice against the perpetrators of the Mumbai attacks. The result so far- Hafez Sayed may still be roaming free, making incendiary sermons against India, but seven men are facing trial in an anti terror court in Rawalpindi for their role in masterminding the attacks. Delhi is watching the trial keenly, and waiting for a guilty verdict that's delivered swiftly. Such an outcome will not only be seen as a positive development in Delhi, but should also be a trigger to restart some kind of talks. Quite apart from the slow movement on the Mumbai investigations and trials, the other major dilemma confronting Delhi is simply the question of who to talk to in Islamabad. The democratic government is weak, and the tussle for authority between President Zardari- still unwilling to give up sweeping presidential powers in spite of pledging to do so when he took office- and Parliament, is wide open for all to see. In this atmosphere within Pakistan, international pressure has clearly achieved just about all it can vis a vis the Mumbai investigations, and the law of diminishing returns seems to have already set in. But in all this, there could be reason to hope. The latest campaign by the Times of India and the Jang Group, Pakistan's largest newspaper and TV outfit (the News, Jang, Geo TV) is perhaps a sign of the times. While some feel Aman ki Asha, or Desire for Peace was a great marketing gimmick on New Year's Day, it is as much a reflection of the fact that there are constituencies for peace on both sides, waiting to break the ice that has stayed frozen in spite of Ekaterinburg and Sharm al Sheikh. After all, India had committed then to keeping lines of communication open at the Foreign Secretary level, at least. The challenge is to build on and expand this constituency across the border so that attempts to deflect attention from the war against the Taliban by raising the pitch against India are mitigated. With memories of Mumbai still raw, many may flinch at this idea, arguing that the year-long stalemate hasn't affected India negatively in any way, even asking what is to gain by seeking peace. Many even point to Pakistan's track record so far- all breakthroughs towards peace have been followed by increased hostility (Kargil in 1999, the parliament attack in 2001, Mumbai train attacks in 2006). But even so, given the state of Pakistan internally, with Afghanistan on the boil after America's latest troop surge, and the very real threat of the Taliban linking up with anti India terror groups, like the Lashkar, the dangers of conflict come with a heavy price tag. Within Pakistan, it's the very real possibility of democracy being subverted again that's at stake. As Pakistan's civil society looks to India's progress and stability in spite of the pulls and pressures, and feels increasingly weighed under by their own political and economic chaos, they are reaching out. India must realize it is their hand that needs to be strengthened. Doing this will yield its own returns, there-in will lie the gains. And so, even if better ties with Pakistan make no significant difference to Delhi, and the violence may continue, as a senior, now retired, diplomat told me, for the sake of the region's wider well being, improving relations with Pakistan is going to be a test of India's humanity. So, sooner rather than later, talk we must. |
Maya Mirchandani is Foreign Affairs Editor/Anchor, NDTV. Wannabe singer/photographer/novelist. Part time cook, full time Aunt.
