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BJP: Against the tide
Thursday June 4, 2009 , New Delhi, India

There's a story about Varun Gandhi that no one in the BJP will tell you on the record. It goes something like this. A party leader, who shall remain unnamed, rang the controversial young politician to invite him for a party function. "Varun," he said, "could you please come to ..." only to find that he had been cut off midstream by an irate Gandhi at the other end of the phone line. The 28-year old lit into his senior party colleague and reprimanded him for addressing him so casually by his first name. At the very least, he argued, he should have been called 'Varunji' for being the party's next big hope in Uttar Pradesh. The story gets even better. Despite the drubbing in UP (many BJP leaders privately blame Varun Gandhi's hate speech for polarising the Muslim vote in favour of the Congress), I'm told that the poet-turned-politician still fancies himself as the main contender for state president.

While the psychological delusions of Varun Gandhi are the subject of a whole different column, the man himself has come to represent all that is wrong with the BJP today. Simply put, the party suffers from paralysis every time it has to deal with its loony fringe. Usually, it dithers for so long on what stand to take that by the time its condemnation is made public,  it sounds effete and unconvincing. And then, as the media stomps all over it, the party slips into victim mode and tries to aggressively promote its vices as if they were virtues.

Once the preferred choice of India's middle class, the BJP is now in danger of losing the big metros entirely (Delhi and Mumbai were swept by the Congress). Its agenda seems woefully out of sync with its own vote base.  The opposition to the nuclear deal was a prime example. As a party leader confided to me in a private conversation, " no party can afford to go against the sentiments of its core constituency." And yet, by repeating the same mistakes over and over again, the party that had once positioned itself as the robust, rooted and nationalistic political alternative, now looks confused, anachronistic and weak.

Rewind to the Mangalore pub attacks. By the time the BJP decided to condemn them unequivocally, the attackers and the state government were seen to be on the same side. No one was ready to listen to the BJP argument that the Ram Sene was not a partner and had in fact, put up candidates against it in the previous Assembly elections. Ideological obfuscating had made the BJP look like a sympathiser of the attackers, even if it was not.

The Malegaon blasts and the entire 'Hindu Terror' issue proved to be another conundrum for the BJP. A party that had designed itself as absolutist (despite the IC 814 and Kandahar barter) on the matter of what it called 'Islamic terrorism' could not exactly afford doublespeak if allegations of terror links surfaced on the other side of the religious divide. But once again, the party dithered and dallied endlessly. Eventually, it ended up challenging the integrity of the police officer (Hemant Karkare, who died in 26/11) who was leading the investigations.

So much has already been said about how LK Advani and the BJP chose to handle Varun Gandhi's inflammatory campaign. But once again, the confused balancing act -- disowning the speech, but clinging on to the man who made it -- speaks to the essential existential crisis of the party.

Like many others, I believe that Advani is a politician with unimpeachable personal integrity. But more than that, I have always found him a thinking man -- with far too much intellectual curiosity -- to be at ease with petty bigotry. And yet, on so many key issues, Advani's public statements seemed to be at odds with his own comfort zone. It was almost as if the pulls and pushes of politics had forced him into positions he was not entirely at ease with. But it also underlined the lack of clarity in the BJP.

The party's Prime Ministerial candidate was trying to be moderate and extreme at the same time. It didn't work. Just as Vajpayee missed his moment in failing to push for Narenda Modi's removal after 2002, Advani's test as a leader for modern times was how he would handle Varun Gandhi. Both men will have to live with the knowledge that these two decisions have pushed the BJP along a trajectory that may not allow it to navigate contemporary India.

Where Narendra Modi goes from here will probably mark which road the BJP has decided to journey on. The whispers against him within the party have begun. All those rooting for him as perfect Prime Ministerial material have now begun to talk about his 'shrillness', his 'obsessive dislike of the Gandhi family' and his inability to reinvent himself into a politician with national acceptability. Yes, the verdict in Gujarat was largely status- quoits (with a marginal decline in vote share) but there was absolutely no Modi Magic outside the state. Will the BJP force Modi to apologise for the anti-Muslim riots or will it accept that without that, he will remain a powerful regional satrap and no more?

The most honest critique of the party has come from Arun Jaitley -- the man who led the election campaign in 2009. He has written about how New India is looking for 'moderation'. After an election that has proved that identity politics can travel only so far and no further, the question is whether he will be able to prevail upon his party? Will the right find its centre again? If it doesn't, the BJP may lose its way permanently.

 
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Posted by madhav on Jun 08, 2009
The Bjp is now a party of lumpens, criminals and sociey rejects in U.P.. It has no hope of revival until it creats a clean transparent and honest leader who is willing to listen and not just be a megalomaniac
 
Posted by Helal Ghazali on Jun 08, 2009
It's sure there many reason behind any defeats of national party like BJP but recent analyzing report by Adwani close aides Sudheendra Kulkarni had written that the party was weakened due to disarray in the BJP's top leadership is revels much and it not only to Adwani but fingering to all policy maker including Arun jetly, Arun shurie or Modi etc. Second just in Rajya Sabha debate BJP member Mr. Arun Shourie requested the government to consider long-term 'consequences' of its move to "give highest priority to minorities" shows how revulsion and dishonest they (BJP ) are for about 30 karores own citizens in the name of minority so how come you be a national party? Election can win once by sentimental blackmail but governance of a nation can not run by those theories.
 
 
Posted by Hidustani on Jun 08, 2009
In Australia when Indians are beaten up then it's Racism, but when in India minority is beaten up then it birth right ? It's unfortunate when Indians come to street and Murder & Rape of inocent women and children then it's called Cleansing. Let's again vote for Varun each time, there not enough blood on the road, it should come till our doorsteps and beyond.
 
Posted by Surya on Jun 08, 2009
This article talks about the progress of BJP in the forthcoming years. Points mentioned about Modi are also correct. May be it's time for BJP to think about some non-controversial young leadership into picture.
 
Posted by swetu patel on Jun 08, 2009
I think lost of BJP are on the day they oppose the N- Deal, second BJP expose about their policy for TEMPLE and Article 370 which give them 180 seat in 1991 was highest tally so fat, one has to understand that that was the pick time for BJP and they get only 180 odd, means they never get 272 what so ever, and that mean again then they need partner and that result in khichadi again which are sign of un stable government if they manage 272 by any means, see this is simple calculation understand by common people like me then why not so called big leader in BJP. One more thing BJP that, let focus on worker base campaign then media, this will 100% give some more vote. I think there was no chance for BJP even before election.
 
Posted by RANGANATHAN RAGHRAMAN on Jun 08, 2009
When Rajivgandhi came to power, we all think at that time - a permanent prime minisiter. But a blunder in Bofors made him out of power. BJP came from scarp. (with 2 seats in). Still we beleive the main opposition is BJP. think, how many people know about (particularly in south) Vajpayee and Advani when indragandhi was primeminister. Really and truthfully, I do not know. I am now 45 yrs of age. I never think other than congress till 1989, but my thought was about BJP also, with their aggressiveness. This is the practicality of a comman man. BJP will not die. We are here to support them also, if congress is not "PERFORMING". But the reality is - Barka - be balance at all times. We definitly feel that you people are somewhat suppotive of congress. yes. BJP will not die. If leader like Promod Mhajan is alive, BJP never think about his survival. still leaders like Mr jailty, Mr narendra modi, Ms.sushma can achive. CONGRESS TO PERFORM.
 
Posted by clement on Jun 08, 2009
BJP will not win until it moderates its image.Until then it seems the Congress way. Also congress' message of inclusive growth is better than BJPs' not so inclusive growth
 
Posted by Sachin Patel on Jun 08, 2009
The BJP lost because its entire poll campaigns were based on negativities. They blamed the Congress , MMS , Sonia , Rahul etc. Instead if they would have used the platform to communicate what it will be focussing in the next term would fetch them more seats. Now after this lost i think BJP will keep on sinking election after election as it is now difficult for them to make room in the heart of the masses. (Unless if congress does some big blunder). BJP will keep on reducing untill it changes it idelogies and bring in fresh young talent in the party.
 
Posted by Rahul Pathak on Jun 08, 2009
Hello Barkha, I respect you though we may have an ideological difference. Coming to the BJP loosing... Everybody is talking about BJP while Congress gained more at the expense of the Commies than that of the BJP. There are many issues why BJP lost for me they could have won may be another 25 - 30 on their best days. First and foremost they are not Pan Bharat as they should (hopefully they will be by next election). SO its better to question Commies than BJP. Urban areas have been BJP fortess but not the metros except for Captial where they are major 1 or 2 , Mumbai where they are 3 they are nowhere in other two metros. Speaking of leadership, I certainly hope someone of the calibre of Mr. Jaitley takes over or maybe Sushma Swaraj but Rajnath or MM joshi taking over would certainly be curtains for BJP
 
Posted by bharat on Jun 08, 2009
Just as the the USA had to see for itself the mistake it made by relecting the Bush govt twice, similiarly the Indian pseudo-secularists will experience with the UPA. The BJP will come back quite strong next time, hopefully with the sophistication and clarity that is worthy of them. The circus act of the UPA is bound to fail without any ideologies of integrity or respect for the majority, pure vote-bank politics and blatant corruption. They have failed time and again to work earnestly for the country, and it is astounding to see how people could vote for them even after hearing about what they did with regards to the Kosi flood aid. These pseudo-intellectual media people are leading India towards a dead-end western lifestyle with their fake accents and wannabe facade.
 
Posted by Sanjoy Saha on Jun 08, 2009
Dear Barkha, You have perfectly summed up the reasons for the Congress' emphatic election result. This result has yet again proved that you people of India cannot be fooled again and again by political rhetoric. I am not political analyst; however I just want to stress on a point which have particularly helped me in making the choice... We all make mistakes, even our (god-like) leaders do and it is very important to accept mistakes and move forward... The fact the Congress leadership apologized whole heartedly to the Sikh Community for the 1984 massacre (not giving seat to Jagdish Tytler) and the fact the BJP leadership was not willingly to even accept the Godhra riot, in my opinion, created a clear distinction. Note how Obama's Cairo speech made such huge impact.... Even over the incident of Mangalore hooliganism, it is really depressing how some my colleagues (known to be BJP sympathizer) terming this incident as blown out of proportion by media and suggesting that media should cover Naxal threats instead...
 
Posted by Amitabh on Jun 08, 2009
When BJP lost the 2004 election they felt that the electorate had made a mistake which would be corrected whenever the next opportunity came. They continued to exhibit arrogance and behaved as an irresponsible opposition, which was extremely dissappointing for the educated and especially the urban middle class which had whole heartedly supported them. Not allowing the parliament to function and opposing everything the government did, was not what its core constituency expected them to do. Come election nd the electorate realised that they had nothing to offer. A campaign focussed on the failiures of the govt rather than what the had to offer was also not liked by the electorate, which found BJPs line difficult to accept. Modi and Varun made thigs worse for them.The wring was on the wall in 2009 but they chose to look the other way at their peril. All is not lost. BJP has to decide the course it wants to adopt and stick steadfastly to it. In case it feels that Hindutva is the only way out they should go for it or if that is not the case then discard it and and adopt a modern approach which is more in line of thinking of the educated youth. Reinvet yourself because those who do not change with times have only to blame themselves for their state.
 
Posted by S.S.Jha on Jun 08, 2009
BJP scores over Congress on most of the parameters. Unlike Congress it has a strong cadre. It has the top leader who is arguably the best on the national scene. Its generation next leadership consists of top pros like Arun Jaitly and Sushma Swaraj.But unfortunately the party has not been able to keep pace with the changing ground situation. The party grew as a reaction to perceived pseudo secularism practised by the successive congress governments(shahbano case for example). The party peaked in the wake of Babri Masjid/Ram Janmabhoomi movement but it was the soft Hindutwa propounded by the likes of Vajpeyee that saw the party head a rainbow coalition at the centre.The communal policy had run its course. The muslim community no longer vote on the diktates of some Imam Bukhari and and Hindus don't find any reason to heed to the war cries of a Varun Gandhi or a Narendra Modi.The communal agenda could have brought the BJP only to this far. From here on the party will have to be propounding an agenda which calls for security and development for everyone if it wants to be relevant in future.
 
Posted by Asok Kumar Ghosh on Jun 08, 2009
If secular democracy is the only feature India needs why one family is projected as the logical leader of the country by the premier national party? Why an honest leader like Lal Bahadur Shastri is so much neglected in our national post independent history. So far as BJP is concerned they have to decide whether they want to be a party of only Hindus or they want to be a party of India. Internally Hindus may be religious but socially Hindu religion never teaches us to be prohindu but it teaches us to be Prohumanbeing. Thus, just by looking at the interest of Hindus BJP can never hope to be lead modern India. Definitely NDA as concieved by the Great Leader Bajpayee can claim to be a possible alternative on Indian National Congress but then BJP has to give real importance to the concept and formation of NDA.
 
Posted by RAVI RANGANATHAN on Jun 08, 2009
As long as Hindus feel shy of saying Jai Shri Ram and as long as the Gandhi family uses its wily nature and its ill gotten funds to promote Islam & Christianity in our counry, the BJP will never come to power.
 
Posted by Dr. S G Dastidar on Jun 08, 2009
The rise of BJP had happened in a situation of a political vacuum in India. In mid %u201890s The congress was direction less and was suffering from the lack of strong leadership, Janata Party was broken into pieces and CPIM denied to give the leadership of coalition Govt. People wanted to a have strong party in the national level. Through the Babri Masjid demolition incident they got the publicity. BJP utilized this chance by doubling their seats. This does not mean that BJP was a choice of the people in a positive sense; rather it was the negative vote which shifted from other parties who failed to give hope to the people. Some people thought that the Hindutwa campaign was the main reason of BJP%u2019s rise, but that could be only partial; the political vacuum was the main factor that helped the BJP; especially they got the support of youth. Now the political scenario has totally changed. Congress has emerged again as a very strong national party who has a long history and people have trusted them for a long time. Congress is getting the votes in positive sense which is different from the BJP. Now to fight against Congress, BJP has to come up with original thoughts and political ideologies which can connect the people of the entire nation under a common slogan and the passion to see the rise of India as a hero on this planet. For example, opposing the selling of profit making national organizations they may raise the slogan for cultural reformation to boost up the organizations to function in more efficient way to make more profit which will be good for the country. Take the lesson from Indian Railway. The slogan of cultural reformation should include the maximum utilization of our own natural resource and manpower towards the benefit of the country in a socialistic manner. For example, India is the 2nd largest in the world to have reserve of Thorium which could be utilized for nuclear reactors. So no Nuc-Deal should oppose the utilization of our own resource freely. The theme of the slogan could be - join the nationalized organization to contribute to building of nation, rather than selling the nation. There should be a competitive environment to work hard to be praised. They have to propose a new idea and strategy of reformation of India, may be against the current publicity of privatization. Now it is the time for BJP to come up with such new ideas which should be unique, different from Congress and good for a nationalistic feeling towards the rise of India, without harming the secularism. Recently BJP has supported the demand of Gorkhaland state in Darjeeling, which is disruptive to the national feeling which can encourage other disruptive forces in India. This was a trick to get a seat in West Bengal, but in long run such politics is going to fail. BJP should think about the need of strategic change in politics.
 
Posted by sanjay on Jun 08, 2009
Armchair politicials and journalists in big metros have little idea on what is happening in many parts of India! Nothing wrong with what Varun said especially in the context of what is happening in many parts of India where the so called minorities have large numbers!Unless we take a strong stand, India will be open to bashing! Regarding BJP, frankly only 2 parties or groups in India who can claim to have some ideology - the leftists and the BJP - whether you agree with them or not! Can you imagine RJD with Lalu, Janata (U) without Nitish or even Congress without the Gandhi family!Do not write-off BJP yet, their core base is too strong!!
 
Posted by anil arora on Jun 08, 2009
If we are looking at reasons of BJP's defeat and victory of Congress, I personally believe that this was more of a rejection vote for BJP rather than an acceptance vote for the Congress. Much should not be read into policies of Congress and leadership of Rahul Gandhi. This is simply misleading. The population of this country does not want opposition for the sake of opposition. BJP sadly could not get the pulse of majority in this country and opposed the Nuclear deal. When only Pakistan, China and Communists were opposing it, the BJP also joined them thereby compromising its nationalistic and patriotic characteristic. BJP would have been much better if it had come forward with a proposal to the govt that we will support the nuclear deal even if communists do not support you. This would have made them a darling of the populace. BJP also failed to project new generation leaders unlike congress. They failed to encash on rampant inflation, there was dissention within the party and also congress played its cards well. However, things can again change in no time. One major mistake by oncgress and momentum will shift back to BJP. If BJP wants to to hardline Hindutva, then they will be better if they project Narendra Modi as their leader. One must remember ...never sail in two boats....
 
Posted by Syed Zafar Ahmad on Jun 08, 2009
I have still to come across a single instance where BJP took up issues in the cause of minorities. How can a party that takes an apparently one-sided and bigoted views claim to represent the entire country representing unity in diversity? It can certainly transform itself into a real national party only when it ceases to exploit communal sentiments for narrow political end. It has not only to faithfully implement its own motto of 'justice for all, appeasement for none' but should also be seen to be doing that. It should take up issues that ensures justice for everyone - irrespective of caste, community and region. There is a need for sincere soul-searching by the party's top brass.
 
Posted by Avinash on Jun 08, 2009
We want RSS and VHP in Center Not Bjp clear the worms of secular Taught Out of BJP and Again It will timuph in election.(at least BJP Free From One family Rule)
 
 
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Barkha Dutt is Group Editor, English News, NDTV
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