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BJP: Against the tide
Thursday June 4, 2009 , New Delhi, India

There's a story about Varun Gandhi that no one in the BJP will tell you on the record. It goes something like this. A party leader, who shall remain unnamed, rang the controversial young politician to invite him for a party function. "Varun," he said, "could you please come to ..." only to find that he had been cut off midstream by an irate Gandhi at the other end of the phone line. The 28-year old lit into his senior party colleague and reprimanded him for addressing him so casually by his first name. At the very least, he argued, he should have been called 'Varunji' for being the party's next big hope in Uttar Pradesh. The story gets even better. Despite the drubbing in UP (many BJP leaders privately blame Varun Gandhi's hate speech for polarising the Muslim vote in favour of the Congress), I'm told that the poet-turned-politician still fancies himself as the main contender for state president.

While the psychological delusions of Varun Gandhi are the subject of a whole different column, the man himself has come to represent all that is wrong with the BJP today. Simply put, the party suffers from paralysis every time it has to deal with its loony fringe. Usually, it dithers for so long on what stand to take that by the time its condemnation is made public,  it sounds effete and unconvincing. And then, as the media stomps all over it, the party slips into victim mode and tries to aggressively promote its vices as if they were virtues.

Once the preferred choice of India's middle class, the BJP is now in danger of losing the big metros entirely (Delhi and Mumbai were swept by the Congress). Its agenda seems woefully out of sync with its own vote base.  The opposition to the nuclear deal was a prime example. As a party leader confided to me in a private conversation, " no party can afford to go against the sentiments of its core constituency." And yet, by repeating the same mistakes over and over again, the party that had once positioned itself as the robust, rooted and nationalistic political alternative, now looks confused, anachronistic and weak.

Rewind to the Mangalore pub attacks. By the time the BJP decided to condemn them unequivocally, the attackers and the state government were seen to be on the same side. No one was ready to listen to the BJP argument that the Ram Sene was not a partner and had in fact, put up candidates against it in the previous Assembly elections. Ideological obfuscating had made the BJP look like a sympathiser of the attackers, even if it was not.

The Malegaon blasts and the entire 'Hindu Terror' issue proved to be another conundrum for the BJP. A party that had designed itself as absolutist (despite the IC 814 and Kandahar barter) on the matter of what it called 'Islamic terrorism' could not exactly afford doublespeak if allegations of terror links surfaced on the other side of the religious divide. But once again, the party dithered and dallied endlessly. Eventually, it ended up challenging the integrity of the police officer (Hemant Karkare, who died in 26/11) who was leading the investigations.

So much has already been said about how LK Advani and the BJP chose to handle Varun Gandhi's inflammatory campaign. But once again, the confused balancing act -- disowning the speech, but clinging on to the man who made it -- speaks to the essential existential crisis of the party.

Like many others, I believe that Advani is a politician with unimpeachable personal integrity. But more than that, I have always found him a thinking man -- with far too much intellectual curiosity -- to be at ease with petty bigotry. And yet, on so many key issues, Advani's public statements seemed to be at odds with his own comfort zone. It was almost as if the pulls and pushes of politics had forced him into positions he was not entirely at ease with. But it also underlined the lack of clarity in the BJP.

The party's Prime Ministerial candidate was trying to be moderate and extreme at the same time. It didn't work. Just as Vajpayee missed his moment in failing to push for Narenda Modi's removal after 2002, Advani's test as a leader for modern times was how he would handle Varun Gandhi. Both men will have to live with the knowledge that these two decisions have pushed the BJP along a trajectory that may not allow it to navigate contemporary India.

Where Narendra Modi goes from here will probably mark which road the BJP has decided to journey on. The whispers against him within the party have begun. All those rooting for him as perfect Prime Ministerial material have now begun to talk about his 'shrillness', his 'obsessive dislike of the Gandhi family' and his inability to reinvent himself into a politician with national acceptability. Yes, the verdict in Gujarat was largely status- quoits (with a marginal decline in vote share) but there was absolutely no Modi Magic outside the state. Will the BJP force Modi to apologise for the anti-Muslim riots or will it accept that without that, he will remain a powerful regional satrap and no more?

The most honest critique of the party has come from Arun Jaitley -- the man who led the election campaign in 2009. He has written about how New India is looking for 'moderation'. After an election that has proved that identity politics can travel only so far and no further, the question is whether he will be able to prevail upon his party? Will the right find its centre again? If it doesn't, the BJP may lose its way permanently.

 
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Posted by kailash on Jun 10, 2009
Congress won due to clean icon of MMS, strong coalition in some states able to mobilize them in all masses. People knows that this have strong economic units which can undertake the current economic crises. BJB is not able define the issues and they always criticize the government and they are still now a religious party in the mind of most of Indian. They always criticize that MMS is weak, but how they are strong they have to define with proper issues. The Indian voters are so smart to judge which is right and which is wrong. They have thrown BJP. I can say that the reforms team of MMS is the best team ever which can create more jobs in both urban and rural area.
 
Posted by deepak on Jun 10, 2009
Though i am not a fan of BJP's politics, i believe elections are a game of numbers and BJP i think has not done badly . If you look in states like Maharashtra, Tamil nadu and Andra when the last elections happenned ppl like Raj Thakrey or Chiranjeevi or Vijaykanth where not there.But this time these guys on a average got over 1 lakh votes in each seat . I belive this is the only difference and not the ideology or something. A party like BJP should look to look beyond the vindhyas , if you are a national party you should have a base everywhere not just in Karnatak in southern region . It has promote good leaders up the ladder from the southern region and then make them as icons and grow
 
 
Posted by Vandana Singh on Jun 10, 2009
I deny barkha fact..,See what Congress is doing..,we r facing the present heat now nly..,In 5 years will face more trouble by paying more tax,whether on roads or some other stuff.Congress was never for youth.Rahul is youth but what he is doing for youth just tell,has he taken any reservation issue till date...,reservation for quota continues..,no new opurtunity for youth..,so he got vote,,being youth wont help,but helping the youth will help.So let c..,where will be afgtr 5 years alive or dead in present market.
 
Posted by hb-Saudi Arabia on Jun 10, 2009
I see many writers saying that congress won because of muslim votes. How can 12% of muslims bring congress or UPA back to power? Did not hindus vote for congress? All hindus are not BJP lovers but all BJP lovers can be hindus. It is because of majority hindu securlarists that India is a secular country today. Muslims feel safe and secure under majority of secular hindus. Unless BJP gets out of its RSS shadow and shreds its hindutva and communal posture it cannot win hearts and minds of masses in general and minorities in particular. It is possible that many BJP leaders may be uncomfortable with the party policies and defeat in two national elections in a row. It is high time for them to form a separate party free from hardcore policies of BJP.
 
Posted by Sanjeev on Jun 10, 2009
While election time a thought came about Congress & BJP. I felt both parties basics are week, Congress - I recalled selection of Nehru ji against Sardar Patel ji for PM post (as shown in Sardar movie) and since choice of Nehru ji was not mandate (natural choice) of Congress Pradesh Smeetis and then birth right of that family over Congress post, I felt congress basics (neev) is not on strong principal. And BJP leader's statement I am not able to forget, "we were 2 & become 98 & then 140 or 160", some how I am not able to let go this statement but what was the force after 2 to 98 - demolition of disputed structure? I found that's a week ground to repeat such performance. Congress was responsible for 1984 & BJP is responsible for Gujrat riots. Rahul Gandhi proved plus point to Congress as he has devoted time for Congress rebuild at state levels & visiting people (being with people). Somehow instead of inheriting from Nehru ji, Rahul is making his own path & a string base for Congress. While BJP is not sure which way it should go, still pro Hindus or criticize anti minority steps, and BJP's weakness is still lies on the grounds. Perhaps that was the reason why Congress scored much more compare to BJP. I am not sure if people of Metro or India are changed, if you look Bombay, BJP-Sena lost because of MSN vote cut. And in Delhi BJP is losing because there is no Madan Lal Khurana ji (a strong face for Delhi BJP). He may not be string enough without BJP but Shiela ji acknowledged his power and suggested center to keep as Governor in Rajasthan. Until BJP gets marg-deshan of Madan Lal Kurana ji, BJP would need to wait for price hike of basic commodities in election time. Deal or no deal, if election had happen 6 months before when price hike was big issue in news no body could save Congress in Metros. It's not magic of Congress that it saved itself in Metros, its magic of recession which forced for not increase in price hike. Oil is $70 now, lets wait for next 6 months when recession is end, the moment price (inflation) swings other side by little margin, you will see people crying in news for price hike. Rahul Gandhi has shown magic in UP. Congrats to him.
 
Posted by Faisal Mahboob on Jun 09, 2009
For a long time, I was under the impression that Hindus in India would like to see the purest form of Hindu governance in every capacity. Not that these sentiments are lost, but an anticipation of prosperity and power dissuades them from taking too much risk. The mindset of an average Indian is to first achieve the affluence and control, even if compromises are to be made. The second part for them is to dictate their own terms when in control. Now there are a very people, both within the voters and those within the BJP leadership, except 'Brand Hindutva' of course, who believe that it is the right time for implementing the second part. I believe, the BJP would have to wait till majority of Hindus become prosperous and confident to implement the second part. However, if congress wants to rule the country, it needs to ensure that the people never feel confident of their prosperity and their hope to prosper never dies. If you look at the statistics, you would observe that the places where the people struggle for bread and butter do not generate enough votes in the name of Hindutva.
 
Posted by dec on Jun 09, 2009
finance-power, fear-creation, frenzy, flip-flop, fixating-negvibes; none of the f words helped fortunately for the nation. Nation believed in silent positive progressive futuristic inclusive objective optimistic vision.
 
Posted by JSP/dxb on Jun 09, 2009
BJP is indebted to hardline agenda, with the recent election outcome their think tank is in a dilemma, in fact it is a clear rejection of BJP's core hidden agenda. Hindusthani voters are now matured, so far BJP would have succeeded in politics by cleverly mixing religion in politics, but this won't going to yield any favor to its political ambitions. Even, BJP's mentor RSS is tried to play the mischief by accomodating thugs into the party to play the politics by inciting riots. in fact RSS lost its focus on social welfare & its so called cultural objectives, instead RSS leaders think & talk only politics. In otherwords their identity now owed to BJP's political gain.
 
Posted by Vibhor Singhal on Jun 09, 2009
I feel BJP is lacking in leadership qualities.None of the BJP leader is dynamic and impressive on the other hand in Congress ther are educated and young people like Rahul Gandhi,Sachin Pilot and so on.The main point behind the phenomenonal success of congress is its young and educated politicians,this forced young and educated public to vote this time.
 
Posted by Om Prakash Narayan on Jun 09, 2009
The BJP has not consolidated on all it's gains over the years. Also, a younger and more acceptable Prime Ministerial candidate is a must.
 
Posted by R.V.RAMANI on Jun 09, 2009
praising Jinnah and asking votes in the name of Hindutva will never yield result.
 
Posted by Avinash on Jun 09, 2009
BJP if Moderate Its Image It will never come to power..It has To Hard Stand On Foregin religion india(Islam,christanity).. It was Ram Jan Bhoomi Which Brought BJP and Then The development which kept in power In western state Like gujarat. Not sof image.
 
Posted by Atul Modasa on Jun 09, 2009
Hi Barkha, I think It was March '02 from where BJP is driving car on wrong way without seat belt and met with accidents in April '04 & April '09. UPA gov did few simple things.... A) Help Small Farmers by waveoff the KRUSHI Loan. B) Minimum 100 days employment for poor people. C) Nuclear deal with USA. d) continue of some Atal Bihari's gov skims like SARV SIKHSHAN ABHIYAN, GRAMIN SADAK YOJNA, National Highway work. Now BJP did some wrong thing...... A) They didn't remove Mr Modi from gujarat CM after '02 communal riots in Gujarat. B) Amarnath Issue In Jammu, Ram Mandir, Ram Setu are important for BJP not for Common man. C) Targeting MMS as weak PM. D) Vaun Gandhi & Narendra Modi language. Hindutva agenda works for BJP in Gujarat & Rajasthan '04 general election but after that it works against BJP in other state, also in Rajasthan 2009. People like Arun Jaitley (THINK TANK) made a statement middle of election about 2014 PM canidate from BJP thats shows confidence lavel in BJP's top leaders about '09 election. They really need to change so many things and I am weating for December.
 
Posted by nitin kadam on Jun 09, 2009
we Know tha why we are called Hindusthan is because we are orginally Hindu. Many invedars came and converted massed into Muslims and christanity. The BJP is the only party which is bringing back the real religion of Hindushtan. so definatly next time BJP will come with single handed in power
 
Posted by SUDHADASAN on Jun 08, 2009
Dear Barkha! I am herewith mailing my reply to Your Blog: BJP: against the tide. I have tried my best to choose the words carefully equal to your standard. Eventhen, if you find any objectionable word in this message, you have the full freedom to delete it & take it to the message board. 1. Have you ever visited Chennai & spoke to a:- Vattam(Area Secretary, Maavattam(District Secretary), or atleast to a local Municipal Councilor of the ruling party? I can tell you tens of thousands of such stories about our politicians of all the parties including the 'Chaste Congress', but I doubt whether you would allow them all here. 2. As for 'Varun's Hate Speech', I would like to point out that neither Indian Muslims nor any other Indian can ever get carried away for anymore long hereafter, by such 'any polarizing speech', as your co-Media people have already brought out ALL the hidden facts openly. Hence, your Polarizing point is ruled out too. 3. Your phrase 'LOONY FRINGE' :- I really wonder in what sense you chose this word 'Fringe'. Anyway, since the day the National Congress was started by Dr.Anne Besant, billions of such Loony Fringes are added to the party to its all the sides, by almost all the famous leaders of the past & present! They themselves gave very funny explanations, when questioned by the press, Is it not contradictory to your party leader so & so No, no! It shows how much democratic freedom we have in our party! Anybody of our party can yell his opinion & it is most welcome by the top brass of our party, as it is a healthy way to strengthen the party. Such hai na? Have you not read ANY of such psychic statements of any Congresswala, dear Barkha? Or atleast have you not seen any photograps(published in the Tamil Dailies regularly) showing the Congresswalas in torn dhotis& shirts & beating with chappals each other (Democratic freedom) at the SatyaMurthy Bhavan - TNCC office, Chennai?
 
Posted by Suman on Jun 08, 2009
BJP's meteoric rise as a political party perhaps had been more circumstantial than political,the political movement against Rajeev Gandhi,a propaganda against the dynastic rule,V.P.Singh's rise as a rebel against Congressism,as a messiah of the dalits,the general feeling that a 3rd front can act as a substitute to Congress's rule; and several other reasons had facilitated The BJP's rise,along with it came the premeditated and prefabricated Babri masjid isssue;all these made BJP rise up the ladder of Indian politics,but for obvious reasons hubris and hamartia crept within the party,the higher level leaders were infected by many of the carnal sins and though the feel good factor was there,Vajpayee's political rhetoric alone could do nothing.And today BJP while introspecting its faults,must have discovered that through the passage of time the party has developed a peculiar detachment from the public,the projection of L.K.Advani as the P.M. has been less to gain political mileage and more to counter Cogress's move of the same pattern,the urban feeling of euphoria that the B.J.P. government is very much pro-urban has burst,yet BJP is to realise the causes behind its failure.However, the rule of the last 5 years has helped the Congress gain a position of faith among the urban populace,who are, at present not eager to go for a change.
 
Posted by Anupam on Jun 08, 2009
Dear Barkha, I beleive that our country can't do away wiothout BJP. A strong opposition and a viable alternative are pre-requisites for any parliamentary democracy to survive. I also beleive that our country face no danger from BJP.........had that been the case their Govts wouldnt have returned to power in the ststes of MP and Gujarat.........infact if we lose identity of BJP then there is a likely hood of even stronger communal, caste baised and pseudo socialist forces taking over. There also seems a danger of our vibrant country receeding back into Govtless era of late nintees that nobody would like to see. May be your this blog will impose some caution on BJP thinktank and mark their re-surgence. THOUGHT: Justification given and accepted (endorsed by your channel as well)of our PM being strong.......that he got the Nuclear deal through in Parliament. I would have continued my regard for him but for the manner in which MPs were bribed to vote.
 
Posted by Chandra P Singh on Jun 08, 2009
BJP does not have presence in 5 major state AP, WB,Kerla,TN,OR. And they have very low and corrupt leaders at lower leve like MLA and lower. If they could have concentrate in UP, they could have have won 60 seats menas addition of 50 and could have retained Rajasthan. But either it's Congress or BJP.. A kind of clear majority is good for India. No differance in BJP and Congress, do the same thing when in government. But Rahul Gandhi is really good because he has power to do something.
 
Posted by Sunil on Jun 08, 2009
Lets face it. Hindutva does not represent "hindu sentiments" but just the sentiments of "some hindus", especially the blind traditionalist kind. The assumption of some BJP supporters that only the Muslims oppose the BJP's communal politics is as wrong as to say that only blacks oppose racism. Moreover, Hinduism itself is highly diverse where the needs/priorities/sentiments etc of different sections are different. The Congress recognizes/respects/tolerates the diversity and tries to cater to the needs/sentiments of all sections as best as possible. The BJP, can at best satify the sentiments of a small section hindus (like the small section that is offended by the arrest of Sankaracharya etc).
 
Posted by Analyser on Jun 08, 2009
Excellent article Barkha. In short BJP is NOT AT ALL fit to run the country,specially tainted man LK Advani. Congress is,specially MM Singh thats why they are in.
 
 
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Barkha Dutt is Group Editor, English News, NDTV
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