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Tiananmen and after
Thursday June 4, 2009

Twenty years ago to the day, a small gathering of students and jobless workers in Beijing upstaged what was then considered an historic rapprochement between China and the Soviet Union.

Mikhail Gorbachev was in town to meet Deng Xioaping in what was to be a major milestone in the often strained relationship between the two communist giants.

But then Tiananmen Square happened.

For days, scores of disgruntled peasants and students were agitating against the rulers who were unable to rein in galloping inflation and rising unemployment.

The demonstrations culminated in a bloodbath at the Tiananmen Square on 4th June. The iconic picture of a lone student standing defiantly against a menacingly advancing tank became a worldwide symbol of the unrest in China. The rest, as they say, is history.

Gorbachev's visit was forgotten in a jiffy.

Chinese authorities killed hundreds and jailed thousands of protesters, mercilessly crushing the nascent revolt.

And yet, the communist rule appeared most vulnerable at that point.

Around the same time, 20 years ago, India was on going through a turmoil of its own. VP Singh-led minority  government supported from outside by two diametrically opposite parties--the BJP and the Left--had come to power, breaking the Congress' monopoly on power.

Looking back, 1989 was also a watershed year in India's recent political history. That year the seeds of trouble that erupted in 1990, were sown.

In 1990, the Mandal agitation and LK Advani's divisive Rath Yatra sent India hurtling into a major crisis.

Two decades down the line, it is important to assess how the two Asian giants have fared since those tumultuous years. 

In China, the Tiananmen Square episode now appears as nothing more than a footnote in history books. Since then, the country has emerged stronger in every possible sphere. Today Tiananmen Square is teeming with young Chinese more interested in taking their own pictures against the backdrop of Mao's giant portrait then following his philosophy or principles.

Today China is the fulcrum around which the world revolves, be it in tackling the global economic crisis or in attempts to rein in a rouge nation-state like North Korea.

Every time one visits China, one can't but notice the giant economic strides made by large parts of China. Even in Tibet, China has managed to raise the economic stakes of the new generation of Tibetans to a higher level, blunting in the process much of the pro-Dalai Lama sentiments. Today, the US is forced to accept China as an equal in most international forums. Its military is modernising rapidly, pouring in billions of dollars in building capability that is focussed on making China a military super-power within the next decade.

By contrast, caste and religious divide continues to pull India down. Our polity is still largely driven by factors of caste, religion, regional identities. We may be a thriving and robust democracy but that has not given India the necessary muscle to even become a regional player. I am deliberately using the term 'player' since India is far from being a regional superpower. None of our neighbours, bar perhaps the tiny Himalayan nation of Bhutan, is fully with India. Pakistan remains a constant nuisance, like a monkey on our backs. We have a 21st century military equipped with 20th century equipment. India continues to blunder along in its long-term military planning. Most of our decision-makers remain oblivious to the new geo-strategic realities.

Although China continues to emphasise the term "peaceful rise," it is a given that Indian and Chinese interests in Asia will clash sooner than most people anticipate. The question is: Are we prepared to meet this threat? In one word, no, not yet at least.

China on the other hand, has managed to overcome the bumps that it encountered along the way since it became a modern nation state in 1949. In the 60th year of its existence, the Chinese can be justifiably proud of the strides they have made. In a smaller way, even we in India should be happy with the progress made so far but in comparison to China we continue to remain a small player.

Its time India stepped up its efforts to match China in various fields and emerge as a worthy competitor in Asia.

 
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About Me
A student of conflicts, insurgencies and wars, Nitin Gokhale has spent 26 years reporting on military and militants from various hostile fields like India's north-east, Kashmir valley, the Kargil war, China and Sri Lanka, among others. He's currently NDTV's Defence and Strategic Affairs Editor.
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