New Delhi:
Monsoon rains across the country are expected to be better than earlier forecast for the remaining season but the eastern regions could see deficient falls.
"Quantitatively, rainfall for the country as a whole during the period August to September is likely to be 107 per cent of long period average (LPA)," Ajit Tyagi, Director General India Meteorological Department told reporters in New Delhi.
He said a late monsoon surge in July has bridged the gap in the rainfall for the month which now was one per cent more than normal.
Tyagi said the rainfall was evenly distributed across the country and over 75 per cent parts of the country had received normal rainfall.
The La Nina effect or cooling of Central Pacific which increases rainfall in south Asia, will be a key factor for active monsoon season in August-September.
However, there were signs of worry in the north-eastern regions, including Jharkhand, Bihar and West Bengal which had received 24 per cent deficient rains than normal.
Even in the week ending July 28, the northeastern region had received about 61 mm rains which was 35 per cent less than normal.
"Though the region has deficient rains, it is not a cause of serious worry as rains in August and September could bring down the deficiency," Tyagi said presenting a mid-season review of this year's monsoon season.
A primary reason for the deficient rainfall was the lack of low pressure areas and depression in the Bay of Bengal, he said adding that uniform temperatures across the North Bay of Bengal and South Bay of Bengal had contributed to the phenomenon.
Formation of low pressure area and depression is crucial for the progress of monsoon in the eastern parts of the country.
This season, monsoon rains have been deficient in Jharkhand (-46 per cent), Bihar (-20 per cent), East UP (-32 per cent), Gangetic West Bengal (-31 per cent), East Rajasthan (-20 per cent), West Madhya Pradesh (-26 per cent), Assam and Meghalaya (-29 per cent) and Arunachal Pradesh (-21 per cent).
Tyagi said Central and north-western parts of the country are expected to get normal rains for the rest of the season while south peninsular region is likely to receive slightly higher rains.
"The only unfavourable or anomalous factor till now is the absence of a depression in the Bay of Bengal. The Arabian Sea current has been very good and their interaction with the mid-latitude westerlies has been resulting in good rains in the north-west," he said.
The monsoon activity is expected to continue for another week, Tyagi said.
Asked whether this was a cause for worry, the chief weatherman said, "It was not so at present. But if this trend continues for a five year period, then it is a cause of worry."
During a normal monsoon season, the Bay witnesses formation of at least seven low pressure areas between June and September, while the first two months of the season has seen only two such weather systems, a senior meteorologist said.