Cannes:
The Health Ministry has said that it is planning to stock 10 million doses of Tamiflu to treat people if the swine flu virus enters India. As of now, the government has a stockpile of two million doses, but in case of an outbreak this will be too little.
With the H1N1 outbreak spreading rapidly, experts are worried about an acute shortage. Already panic buying has resulted in Tamiflu disappearing from shelves.
"We are concerned at the virus spreading rapidly across the world. We have the capacity to manufacture 400 milllion doses," Dr James R Smith, International Medical Leader, Roche.
But it is not quite enough to deal with the rising demand as one patient needs to take 14 tablets to be completely free of the virus.
So governments across the world are scrambling to place orders. But who will decide who gets Tamiflu and how much?
"We will be negotiating with governments. But WHO has its own stockpile and they will give countries in certain situation. We need to honour our own commitments," said Dr Smith said.
This means the countries without a drug industry will have to depend wholly on WHO. In India, three generic companies -- Hetero, Cipla, Ranbaxy along with Roche are producing Tamiflu and 30 million doses will be bought by the government in three phases. But it will take time.
The only other option to treat H1N1 is Relenza or Zanamivir. But it must be inhaled so is ineffective among seriously sick patients.
Anti-virals will play a crucial role in case there is a pandemic until a vaccine emerges. But given the number of people who are likely to be affected the current stockpile of drugs is far too little and there are fears that poorer nations will not be able to access it.