New Delhi:
The BJP's Jagadish Shettar is expected to be formally elected today as Karnataka's third Chief Minister in four years, by party MLAs who have gathered for a meeting at the Capitol hotel in Bangalore, close to the Raj Bhawan, amid tight security. Expected to, because in Karnataka's volatile politics of the day, anything is possible.
But the event is not without drama. The Sadananda Gowda group hasn't turned up for the meeting. The 50 supporters, including state party president KS Eshwarappa and Suresh Kumar, instead held a separate meeting at Mr Gowda's residence. After that meeting Mr Gowda and Mr Eshwarappa have gone not to the MLAs' meeting at Capitol hotel but to meet senior party leaders Arun Jaitley and Rajnath Singh, sent as observers from Delhi, at the Ashoka Hotel.
The Gowda supporters have circulated a list of 50 MLAs to show they back him. They want to know who will be Deputy Chief Minister and the state party president.
Mr Shettar's appointment has the blessings of the BJP's central leadership, which accepted the resignation of DV Sadananda Gowda over the weekend. He will take oath as chief minister tomorrow. But party strongman BS Yeddyurappa has proved once again that in this state, it is really his blessings that count. Many of the 121 MLAs meeting today owe allegiance only to Mr Yeddyurappa, whose current pick for CM is Mr Shettar. A year ago, he did not want Mr Shettar as CM and had insisted that Mr Gowda be appointed.
Young Bangaloreans, who will vote for the first time in next year's Assembly elections, will not wager a bet on Mr Shettar lasting out till then."Who knows when Mr Yeddyurappa will change his mind again,"said one. A question that the BJP leadership has no doubt chewed on.
For now the party, which has been repeatedly embarrassed by the shenanigans of the state unit, and in particular Mr Yeddyurappa's game of political survival amid charges of corruption, has its fingers crossed that the Gowda to Shettar transition will be a smooth affair. Senior party leaders Arun Jaitley and Rajnath Singh are in Bangalore as observers to ensure that happens. If all goes as planned, Mr Shettar is expected to be sworn in tomorrow.
There are hiccups already. Mr Yeddyurappa's camp was the first to arrive at the Capitol for this morning's meeting, which began a little after 11 am.
Mr Gowda did not demur and was the picture of grace as he accepted his party's command to give up the Chief Minister's post, but his influential community is not ready to be as forgiving. There have been Vokkaliga protests all over the state and the community has said it will observe today as a "black day".
Community and caste considerations forced the BJP's hand in making the change. Mr Shettar belongs to the Lingayat community, seen as the most powerful in the state. Mr Yeddyurappa too is a Lingayat leader and had won Karnataka for the BJP, its first ever state in the south, with the full backing of his community. With elections round the corner, the BJP is counting on consolidating the Lingayat support with Mr Shettar at the helm - especially as his appointment was sought by none other than Mr Yeddyurappa.
Last year, when he stepped down, Mr Yeddyurappa had vehemently opposed Mr Shettar being made CM. At that time, he is believed to have been keen to ensure that no other Lingayat could challenge him as the tallest leader of the community. He chose the affable Mr Gowda in what he clearly saw as a holding operation. But Mr Gowda soon said he was here to serve his full tenure. Then began Mr Yeddyurappa's oust-Gowda campaign; earlier this year, when a CBI investigation was ordered against Mr Yeddyurapa in corruption cases and it was clear that he would not be back to reclaim the CM's post anytime soon, he changed his demand to asking for a Lingayat Chief Minister.