(Rana Ayyub is an award-winning investigative journalist and political writer. She is working on a book on Prime Minister Narendra Modi which will be published in 2015.)The irony of coalition math is that a party with an enviable result has to allow another that has under-performed to call the shots - at least to some extent. The BJP today is the victim to this situation. Despite emerging as the single-largest party in Maharashtra, which is an enormous feat, the party will have to allow for exploitation by either the Shiv Sena or Sharad Pawar's NCP.
As the numbers arrived this morning, it was apparent that despite talk of a Modi wave from the PM's party, the BJP would have to work on a compromise with the Shiv Sena which had left no stone unturned in humiliating its leaders. Sena head Uddhav Thackeray had accused the BJP of deception and backstabbing; at a rally he likened BJP President Amit Shah to Afzal Khan, who, in Sena parlance, is the ultimate traitor (the outsider who betrayed Shivaji, epic warrior king and Maratha icon).
With the BJP being restricted to about 120 seats in the state, as opposed to internal calculations of 150 which would have given it an absolute majority, the party has two options.
Sharad Pawar's NCP has gone public with an offer of external support. Not an ideal match, given that the PM has described Pawar as "naturally corrupt". Pawar's nephew, Ajit, and other senior leaders face cases of graft. So tying up with the NCP will seriously undermine the BJP's repeated commitment to clean governance.
The Shiv Sena, on the other hand, has adopted a reconciliatory tone after its aggression flagged once exit polls forecast a Big Sunday for the BJP. Today, Sena leaders said that the BJP's celebrations should be tempered by the fact that a 27-rally campaign by the PM was not able to deliver the state outright to his party.
"Where is the Tsunami which was to drown us? Maharashtra is still a state of Maharashtrians and the BJP cannot afford to negate our presence" said a Sena leader today.
But taunts, if any, will be private for now. Both the Sena and BJP are working on their respective proposals for a compromise. According to Sena insiders, their party could ask for a rotational chief minister with three years for the BJP and two years for the Sena. However, there will be a caveat in place: the Sena will want its stint before the BJP to signal to its votebank that it has emerged victorious. In response, the BJP may be willing to offer post of Deputy Chief Minister to the Sena.
Uddhav Thackeray, Sena chief, has so far shown no signs of flexibility on wanting the chief minister's post for his party, most likely for himself. This is not least because of its hold over Mumbai's municipal corporation, which has a whopping annual budget of 30,000 crores. The civic body is run by a Sena-BJP alliance but the Sena's seats are more than twice those of the BJP.
Having tasted success in the assembly elections, the BJP would want to replicate its victory when the civic body votes in 2017. Getting into the chief minister's office first (as part of a rotational agreement) would help the Sena consolidate lost ground in the city ahead of the crucial municipal election.
But the BJP has many reasons to fight back. It is symbolically and practically important for the party to take charge in the country's financial capital, especially when it has delivered its strongest-ever performance in Maharashtra. The model it adapts for a partnership in Maharashtra will implicate its negotiations with other allies for states that will vote next.
And then there's the trust deficit. The Shiv Sena's scathing editorials did not spare the PM - he was referred to as "a chai wallah." Last night, Sena leader Sanjay Raut said his party would not let ideological constraints come in the way of government formation, which will be seen by the BJP as the Sena placing a premium on power above all else.
The BJP has said repeatedly today Maharashtra will get a chief minister from the BJP. A compromise formula at this point could be the BJP offering the post of Deputy Chief Minister to the Sena -and/or the Home department with other significant ministries.
The next few hours - perhaps days - will be the the delight of political pundits.
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