New Delhi: (Ashok Malik is a columnist and writer living in Delhi)Jayalalithaa Jayaram and
Narendra Modi were reputed to be good friends, with the Tamil Nadu chief minister attending Modi's swearing-in ceremony after the Gujarat election of December 2012. There was a belief the AIADMK would not think twice before joining the NDA, should the BJP emerge as the single-largest party in the 16th Lok Sabha election. What then explains the war of words between the two senior politicians? (
Jayalalithaa's sharpest attack against Narendra Modi so far)
The issue can be understood in two contexts - economic and political. In this election campaign, Modi has spoken about development of ports, and of a manufacturing economy that becomes part of global supply chains. The assumption has been that he is voicing the achievements of Gujarat. However, in considering the successes of Gujarat, it needs to be acknowledged that other states with similar advantages have lost out in contrast.
Tamil Nadu is a classic case. As an industrialised economy, it preceded Gujarat. Like Gujarat, it has a long coastline and a network of ports. After the economic reforms of the 1990s, it was an early starter in big manufacturing. Yet, in the past decade, it has ceded ground primarily due to insatiable corruption and an infrastructure deficit, exemplified by a power problem.
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It is in these very areas - corruption and power - that Modi's government has demonstrated progress and made Gujarat more investor-friendly. This was highlighted when Hyundai, the South Korean automobile company, announced it would build its new plant not in its traditional Indian home of Sriperumbudur but in Gujarat. Indeed, that Gujarat has gradually emerged as a car-making hub is among other things an indictment of Tamil Nadu's politicians.
As such, when Modi attacks the two large regional parties, the AIADMK and the DMK, and accuses them of letting down a state with as much potential as Tamil Nadu, it is not without reason. For Jayalalithaa, as the incumbent chief minister in Chennai, it cuts particularly close to the bone. (
Considered close, Narendra Modi and Jayalalithaa target each other)
Move now to the political context. Modi's words and barbs are drawing a sharp retort from Jayalalithaa because he is getting traction among Tamil voters. When the election season began, the AIADMK was speaking airily of winning 30 or even 35 of 39 Lok Sabha seats (40 if you add Puducherry). Today, it is apparent such triumphalism was premature.
Why? For one, the DMK is still in the fight in some pockets. That apart, the six-party alliance the BJP has put together - it includes the PMK (backed by the Vanniyar community and led by the Ramadoss family), the DMDK of actor 'Captain' Vijayakanth, and maverick politician Vaiko's MDMK - may just punch above its weight.
What is helping this alliance, opinion polls and political feedback suggest, is an incremental Modi factor across Tamil Nadu. The BJP leader's recent meeting with Rajinikath is also seen as a positive signal in a state polity where such semiotics are given considerable importance. Suddenly, from a monopoly situation or at best a skewed bipolarity, the election in Tamil Nadu has become unpredictably three-cornered. It is near certain the AIADMK will finish first, the DMK the runner-up and the BJP alliance only third. Even so, how the seats will be distributed is difficult to foretell.
(Will Rajinikanth help Narendra Modi score a superhit in Lok Sabha polls?)Aside from what its allies may get, the BJP itself is confident in at least Kanyakumari and Coimbatore. On their part AIADMK insiders are talking of winning half to two-thirds of the state's constituencies, a far cry from the boasts of a few months ago. It is this realisation that is causing Jayalalitha to hit out at Modi. The BJP prime ministerial candidate, in turn, is alive to new possibilities in Tamil Nadu and is going for broke.
Should the NDA form a government after May 16, Modi may still require Jayalalithaa's support - to prove a majority or even otherwise to pass key legislation. An AIADMK with 35 seats would have enormous blackmailing capacity. An AIADMK with 20-25 seats and a DMK with say 10 seats - and these are numbers plucked out of the air - would allow Modi to play off one Tamil Nadu party against the other. This too has Jayalalitha worried; it is not the election she had dreamt of.
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