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Rana Ayyub is an award-winning investigative journalist and political writer. She is working on a book on Prime Minister Narendra Modi which will be published in 2015.)
If Devendra Fadnavis becomes the Chief Minister of Maharashtra, which he in all likelihood he will, he will be its second-youngest leader. The youngest, ironically, was none other than the man whose party seems to have stalled Mr Fadnavis's appointment - Sharad Pawar, who was just 38 when he became Chief Minister in 1978.
Since the BJP in Maharashtra split with the Shiv Sena, Fadnavis, 44, has been the front-runner for Chief Minister. As pointed out in an
earlier column on ndtv.com his career has been a virtual carbon copy of that of his colleague and senior from Nagpur, Nitin Gadkari, who has now been pitted against him for the post of Chief Minister.
Before he was appointed BJP President for Maharashtra in 2013, Fadnavis forged a close relationship with Gopinath Munde, one of the BJP's most powerful leaders from Maharashtra.
That equation made Fadnavis a natural rival of Gadkari. Munde, who was made a union minister in the Modi government died in a car accident in June; his less than amicable relationship with Gadkari had led to him resigning twice from all posts in the BJP. The two leaders who were responsible for placating him on both occasions were Shiv Sena leader Bal Thackeray and BJP patriarch LK Advani , who has been totally marginalized now.
Soon after being appointed the State BJP President - a promotion owed largely to the RSS' support - Fadnavis chose to mend bridges with Gadkari who enjoys tremendous clout in Maharashtra especially in the Vidarbha region and is close to top industrialists and the business community in the state.
Fadnavis knew that if he wanted to ascend to the very top, a reconciliation with Gadkari was vital - in 2009, the senior leader had blunted Fadnavis's chances of getting a Lok Sabha seat from Nagpur. In Maharashtra politics, where caste plays a very significant role, two Marathas could not take parallel routes to power. Fadnavis, like Gadkari, is a Deshasth Brahmin and has been a strong voice in the campaign for a separate Vidarbha and enjoys a clean image, something that worked in his favor. However Gadkari with a vast business empire and contacts had the money and the clout, an aspect that the RSS could not ignore. Things changed when Gadkari moved to Delhi as BJP President in 2009 but as the saying went in BJP circles "You could take Gadkari away from Maharashtra but never take Maharashtra away from Gadkari."
His job was to play the RSS' mediator in Delhi but Gadkari could never give up his Maharashtra dream. In his absence, Fadnavis became the face of Maharashtra, receiving BJP leaders at the Nagpur airport everytime they would call on the RSS leadership.
With the emergence of Modi and Amit Shah as the two leaders who would catapult the BJP to victory and focus a large part of their campaign on fighting against corruption, Gadkari had become a liability. He had occupied a powerful post in the party as president, but there were others calling the shots. And then, Gadkari, who had begun to complain about this, was replaced as president in January last year - many in his party believe the corruption charges against him that ended his hopes of a second term were levelled at the behest of senior BJP leaders who wanted him sidelined.
However once the BJP assumed power in May, Gadkari was made the Union Transport minister and his old rival, Gopinath Munde was made Rural Affairs Minister. Back at home, in Maharashtra, there was a vaccum in leadership that was filled by Fadnavis. After Munde's death in June in a car accident, Gadkari had begun to send feelers to the RSS that although he was himself not keen to return to Maharashtra , the state required the presence of an OBC candidate like Sudhir Mugantiwar. In 2013, it was this Gadkari confidante who had been replaced by Fadnavis as state president. After Munde's death, Gadkari felt he could consolidate a new hold over Maharashtra.
But Modi and Shah, whose differences with Gadkari are well known, had other plans. They wanted to loosen Gadkari's grip on Vidarbha, and Fadnavis fit the bill
Earlier this week, the Gadkari camp realized that Fadnavis' path to the Chief Minister's Office was becoming easier. Pankaja Munde publicly said she was opting out of the race; Vinod Tavde was not able to garner support. It was at this juncture that the Gadkari camp got into action and voiced its desire to have him move back to the state. A very public and scripted show of strength was displayed to the media when 40 MLAs from Vidarbha met Gadkari at his residence and said they wanted him as Chief Minister.
That looks highly unlikely - the RSS will be unwilling to be seen as abandoning Fadnavis, a candidate with a clean image. So what will the former BJP President gain from this show of strength? Observers in the state BJP believe that Gadkari has exhibited his heft in the state, and may perhaps get to pick a minister in a powerful position in the state government. He will also have sent a signal to Maharashtra leaders that he has a say in the party's matters in the state, as well as the functioning of the government .
Irrespective of how things play out, eventually a Nagpur boy will win the match.
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