(Patrick French is an award-winning historian and political commentator. His books include 'Liberty or Death: India's Journey to Independence and Division', 'The World Is What It Is' and 'India: A Portrait'.)Although the Congress party won nearly a 40 percent share of the vote in Gujarat at the 2012 assembly elections, it has been structurally and perhaps more importantly psychologically eclipsed locally by the BJP. At his office in Ahmedabad, its leader Arjun Modhwadia told me forlornly last month that
Narendra Modi had 'captured the mind of the people' through his mysteriously effective use of the media. It was noticeable that the party seemed to have few ideas of how to improve its position.
Until the 1990s, Congress was the natural party of government in Gujarat, with chief ministers like Chimanbhai Patel and Dr Jivraj Mehta. Patel was a shrewd and shady political operator who promoted the state's industrialization. Mehta was the first chief minister after the creation of Gujarat out of the old Bombay State in 1960. Born in Saurashtra, he was an eminent medical doctor in London before the First World War, and for a time served as Gandhi's own physician before becoming prime minister of the princely state of Baroda. His wife Hansa Mehta was also historically significant: she altered the wording of Article 1 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights from: 'All men...' to 'All human beings are born free and equal in dignity and rights.'
Today, figures of this kind can only be remembered as belonging to a distant era. New young leaders and activists are being thrown up by Congress in Gujarat, but they suffer from a disconnect with the older generation of party stalwarts. Shankersinh Vaghela was at one time Modi's colleague in the BJP, but is now leader of the opposition in the state assembly. He hopes to win back the seat of Sabarkantha by wooing a traditional vote bank of Thakors, Rajputs and OBCs, but he did not seem to be optimistic about his chances of reviving the fortunes of Congress in Gujarat.
'We do not have a presidential system like in America, but our chief minister is giving speeches all over the country saying he's a saviour and a bold administrator. But he's not! A high growth rate is in the blood of Gujarat. He makes these vulgar speeches saying Rahul Gandhi is a shehzada or a calf. You never hear such language from Mrs Sonia Gandhi. They come from a reputable family. This man sees his own colleagues not as equals, but as his bonded labourers! I can't think what Modi would do if he became prime minister. His first target is not Pakistan but the United States. He will say to all the Americans in India - you have 48 hours to get out!'
Vaghela made for entertaining company, but if this impromptu speech was anything to go by, his politics are purely reactive. His statements defined themselves as being in opposition to the agenda being set by Narendra Modi and the BJP. Does the conduct of a single leader in one state represent a repeating national trend? Probably not. But if Congress is this inept at stating its case, and so restricted in its ability to appeal on the basis of popular inspiration, then it's in for a tough few years.
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