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SENSEX V/s BUDGET

Average monthly return (from 1991) is -2.1% one month after budget with standard deviation of 11.1% Average monthly return (from 1991) is 2.8% one month pre- budget with standard deviation of 9.2% Sensex has lost over 325 points since the New FM gave 1st press appearance Markets during a union budget run-up by average 0.7% ,Avg. One week return budget is negative 1% On the day of budget markets have 60% probability of ending in red

UNION BUDGET V/S SENSEX
FISCAL	KEY DATES	RUN UP (1 MNTH)	THE DAY	ONE WEEK
2008-09	29-Feb-08	1.0%	-1.4%	-10.4%
2007-08	28-Feb-07	-4.3%	-4.0%	-5.8%
2006-07	28-Feb-06	3.7%	0.9%	4.4%
2005-06	28-Feb-05	0.2%	2.2%	4.3%
2004-05	8-Jul-04	0.4%	-2.3%	-2.2%
2003-04	28-Feb-03	0.8%	0.2%	-2.7%
2002-03	28-Feb-02	11.9%	-3.9%	-2.5%
2001-02	28-Feb-01	-5.9%	4.4%	-0.6%
2000-01	29-Feb-00	10.3%	-5.1%	-3.8%
1999-00	27-Feb-99	-2.5%		15.4%
1998-99	1-Jun-98	-8.0%	-1.2%	-7.3%
	Average	0.7%	-1.0%	-1.0%

Highlights

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Allocation of Rs.2100 cr for defense pensions
Sign of revival in domestic industry and return of FIIs
Fiscal stimulus at 3.5% of GDP
Significant rise of foreign capital inflows important
Job creation hit due to economic slowdown
Pace of job creation affected by dip in GDP
No STT on sale, purchase of shares by pension schemes
Disinvestment target of Rs 1120cr in FY'10
Service tax extended to legal services
FY'10 fertiliser subsidy burden seen at Rs.50k cr
FY'11 fiscal deficit target at 5.5% of GDP
Aim to sustain growth at over 9% extended period
FY'10 corporate tax seen at Rs 2.57 lkh cr
Branded jewellery fully exempt from excise duty
4% excise to stay on items of mass consumption
Customs duty on Silver hiked to Rs 1000/kg
Keeps 8% central excise duty on man made fibre & yarn
Tax holiday extend to natural gas prod from NELP VII
Customs duty on wind power equip cut by 2.5%
Customs duty on 10 life saving drugs cut to 5% from 10%
To reduce customs duty on 10 life saving drugs
To reduce customs duty to 5% on LCD panels
To impose 5% customs duty on set top boxes
Tax holiday under 80 IB extended to natural gas prod
To extend tax holiday on gas production
(CTT)Commodities transaction tax to be abolished
Carry forward period of MAT cr raised to 10 years
To introduce new investment linked tax sops
Raises rate of min alternative tax (MAT)to 15% vs 10%
Surcharge on corporate tax to continue
Fringe benefit tax abolished
GST to be dual regime in central & state term
Propose to extend sunset clause by 1 more year
To phase out surcharge on direct taxes
IT exemption limit raised by Rs 10k for women
IT exemption limit raised by Rs.15k for senior citizen
No changes in corporate tax rates
New direct tax code to release in 45 days
To allow smooth introduction of GST from Apr 2010
Structural changes in direct taxes
Shares of direct taxes at 56% of total govt revenue
Fiscal deficit at 6.8% of GDP in FY'10
FY'10 revenue deficit seen at 4.8% of GDP
Higher fiscal deficit remains a concern
States would be allowed to borrow extra 0.25% of GDP
Gross budgetary support raised by Rs.40,000 cr
FY10 planned expenditure at Rs.3.25 lkh cr
Interest payments at 36% of non planned exp
To spend Rs 10.20lkh cr total expenditure
Outlay of Rs.1740 cr for Min of Minorities
To allocate Rs.120cr for unique ID project
Spending on higher education to rise by Rs 2k cr (2010)
Unique ID nos to be rolled out in next 12-18 mnth
To launch employment exch under PPP scheme
PSUs to remain within public sector
To set up handloom mega cluster in Raj, TN, WB
Interest subsidy on bank loans for higher education
Govt to spend Rs.12K cr on rural roads in FY'10
To provide Rs.2000cr for rural housing fund
Govt to introduce food security bill
To provide real wage of Rs.100/day under NREGA
Propose allocation of Rs.39100 cr or NREGA
Scheduled commercial bks can set up offsite ATM
Raise threshold for non promoters for listed cos
PSU banks and insurance cos to remain with govt
Govt to set up an expert group on pricing petro pdts
Aiming for direct transfer of subsidy to farmers
Institutional refo reform measures to stabilise BOP
Aim to return to FRBM target at the earliest
Rs 4000cr fund to incentivise banks & SFCs to lend
To extend enhanced export credit guarantee to March
To provide all possible relief to exporters
Irrigation benefit program increased by Rs.1000cr
Farm loan waiver scheme extended by 6 months
Int subvention scheme for farm loans to continue
1% int subvention to farmers making timely payment
Target Agri credit flows at Rs 3.25 lkh cr
Allocation to NHAI increased by 23% (YoY)
IIFCL to finance 60% of commercial bank loans for PPP
Global financial conditions have seen improvement
Gross capital flow fell in wake of global fin crisis
Will ensure farm sector growth at 4%
Need to strengthen improve regulatory framework
Private investment has been the key growth driver
Raise investment in infra to 9% of GDP by 2014

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