Make-or-break Maldives polls on Saturday

Male: Maldives will vote on Saturday in a run-off between ex-President Mohamed Nasheed and Abdulla Yameen Gayoom. In the first round re-vote, Mr Nasheed had - like in the now annulled September seventh vote - emerged a hands-down winner. He didn't however get the constitutionally mandated magic number of 50 per cent + 1 vote.

The Supreme Court had postponed the run-off last Sunday. The country's first democratically elected President, Mr Nasheed got 46.93 per cent of the vote in the first round re-vote a week ago. Mr Gayoom - former autocrat Maumoon Gayoom's brother - had 29.73 per cent of vote and the third placed candidate was Qasim Ibrahim with 23.34 per cent of the vote.

Coalition against Nasheed

Resort tycoon Qasim Ibrahim's Jumhoory Party has now joined hands with Mr Gayoom's Progressive Party of Maldives or PPM in a coalition against Mr Nasheed's Maldivian Democratic Party or MDP. Reports suggest Mr Qasim has been promised 33 per cent of seats in a new Cabinet if the PPM wins.

Both sides held their last show-of-strength rallies on Saturday before the Election Commission campaign cut-off of 6 pm. 239,105 voters are eligible to cast their vote and in both elections that have been held there has been a high turnout (88 per cent in the Supreme Court struck-down September seventh poll and 87 per cent a week ago).

Maldivians can vote from 7:30 am to 4 pm in 475 booths spread across the island archipelago and in five countries where they live (including India). Counting begins as soon as polls close and a preliminary result is expected late on Saturday.

International pressure

The international community has been putting pressure for a free, fair and credible election for the over two months as polls have been held, struck down, and postponed repeatedly. In perhaps the strongest statement yet, the European Union or EU High representative Catherine Ashton warned, "The EU considers that any attempt to further delay or otherwise influence the outcome of the elections could only be intended to prevent the people of the Maldives from exercising their democratic right to choose their next president. The EU underlines that neither continuing uncertainty nor a drift towards autocratic rule would be acceptable to the EU and that it is therefore ready to consider appropriate measures should the poll on 16 November not bring the electoral process to a successful conclusion."

India has been pushing for free and fair elections and had even rushed Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh and other top officials to Male' last month.

The Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group (CMAG) has also recommended suspending the Maldives from its disciplinary committee at an ongoing meeting in Sri Lanka. The group considers the situation after current President Mohamed Waheed stayed in office after his term ended as a 'crisis of governance' and a 'constitutional void'.

Mr Nasheed's party has been calling for international sanctions and travel restrictions on the current regime as well as members of the judiciary. The MDP feels Mr Nasheed has been denied an opportunity to reclaim his Presidency by his opponents in collusion with the regime and the Supreme Court.

The Maldives former autocratic President Maumoon Gayoom - Mr Abdulla Yameen's brother hit out at what he called 'foreign interference' and called for the next government to pull out of the Commonwealth over what he said was international pressure on President Waheed to hand over power to the Speaker of the Majlis.

President Waheed's farewell address

On Saturday morning, President Waheed made his farewell address to the nation hitting out at his predecessor. He said, "In global currents, the country's own say was weakened by manifolds. The country was under a position where it could be forced, by changing the Constitution, to do things that its legal framework didn't allow. The government and senior leadership were being asked to resign within few hours, to flout the orders of court, and to stand against those orders." President Waheed was criticised for deciding to stay on in office after his term ended. He cited a Supreme Court order ruling that he could stay on after his term ended till a new Head of State was elected. He has also been criticised for leaving the country on what he is reported to have said is a private visit to Hong Kong and Malaysia on government money. The Finance Ministry confirmed $ 34,000 had been released for the two day trip.

Maldives make-or-break polls: final rallies

On Saturday, the PPM's Yameen Gayoom played the Islamic card that has been an intrinsic part of the campaign. He said at a rally, "When you go to vote, think for yourselves, do you want Islam in the Maldives or do you want to allow space for other religions in the Maldives." Mr Nasheed has been warning of religious extremism and in his final rally he attacked his opponents saying, "Our country is at a crossroads, on the edge of a razor blade. We can reach a safe shore or go down the path of ruin. I am certain that the people of the Maldives will choose saving the country. I know the the Maldivian people will want a prosperous life. I am certain that the Maldivian people will want once again for a Maldivian Democratic Party government to be formed, for social security, for a better way.' What that way is will be closely watched in regional and world capitals.