New Delhi:
Afghanistan's Loya Jirga (Council of Elders) has endorsed the troop deal with the US, but President Karzai insisted he will only sign it after presidential polls in April 2014. A vast number of the 50 committees set up endorsed the deal with minor changes. All conclusions were reconciled to one declaration of 31 articles that endorsed the deal and the signing of it as soon as possible. The chair of the Jirga, former President Sebghatullah Mojaddedi went so far as to tell President Hamid Karzai that he would resign from all posts and leave the country if the deal wasn't signed in the next few days.
Mr Mojaddedi, like a majority of the Jirga, want President Karzai to sign the Bilateral Strategic Agreement (BSA) no later than December 31, 2013. On Saturday, Mr Mojaddedi said President Karzai had no right to delay the deal and a postponement would not be in Afghanistan's interests. The Afghan Parliament has to pass the deal before it can be signed.
Loya Jirga endorses troop dealThe Loya Jirga declaration of 31 articles, among other things, endorsed the BSA text, considering it in the national interest. Article 4 recommends that the BSA be valid for 10 years and Article 9 calls for the setting up a prosecution mechanism for possible future crimes by US troops. Article 17 says Afghanistan's soil should not be used to launch military operations against other states. While Article 28 recommends an additional US base from the 9 in the BSA.
Karzai for delay in signing troop dealBut President Hamid Karzai insisted it should be signed only after the Presidential election in April 2014. On the final day of the Loya Jirga in Kabul, Mr Karzai repeated what he had told the meeting on the first day. Responding to American anger over the delay, he said, "The US Ambassador said they needed the agreement for planning purposes. I asked the US Ambassador why they were in such a hurry to sign the BSA. You've waited 12 years, what's another five months." Outlining his conditions again, President Karzai said America needed to help with the polls, ensure peace and security and help with talks with the Taliban. He said, "We want the international community to commit that if our elections go to the second round, they'll help us conduct the run-off within two weeks." The President ended his speech saying, "We will continue our negotiations with the US on the BSA," getting extremely emotional on one of the clauses he's been publically very adamant about. He said, "From now on, US raids on our homes, setting up checkpoints on our roads are over." The precondition for signing the agreement he said was peace.
US rejects delayThe US had rejected the President's intention to sign the agreement after the polls which he is ineligible to stand for. In several phone calls, US Secretary of State John Kerry has insisted the deal be signed this year. The US argues it can't have a long-term plan for troop presence if there is no agreement soon. The US currently has 60,000 of NATO's 75,000 troops in Afghanistan (down from the surge that saw over 100,000 soldiers in Afghanistan). All combat troops will go home by December 31, 2014. The BSA then will take over and up to 15,000 troops could remain in 9 bases.
Karzai's brinkmanshipHamid Karzai's hardball public posturing is seen as an attempt to show the Afghan people that he is extracting the maximum from the US. On the first day of the Jirga, the President told the 2,500 delegates, "My trust with America is not good. I don't trust them and they don't trust me. I have fought with them, and they have made propaganda against me." If the deal is not signed the 'zero-option' could stare Afghans in the face, i.e. all troops withdraw. Top sources have told NDTV they see this grand-standing as a need for Mr Karzai to be a factor in the months to come and not be seen as a lame-duck. He could also be holding out for more negotiations of what kind of arms the Afghans will get and an endorsement once he publically states who his favoured successor is.
Deal for troops till 2024The BSA outlines the scope and form in which American troops will stay after 2014, till 2024 and possibly even after that. US troops will have nine bases after the withdrawal of combat personnel by December 31, 2014. They will assist, train and equip their Afghan counterparts with four billion dollars in military aid promised every year. Though President Obama has said there will be no combat troops, the wording of the BSA does allow for counter-terrorism operations. Article 2(4) states, "U.S. military counter-terrorism operations are intended to complement and support ANDSF's counter-terrorism operations, with the goal of maintaining ANDSF lead, and with full respect for Afghan sovereignty and full regard for the safety and security of the Afghan people, including in their homes."
Karzai extracts 'no-raids' pledge, except...No US raids on Afghan homes has been one issue President Karzai has been adamant on. He extracted a letter from his American counterpart in which President Obama writes, 'As this new agreement states, US forces shall not enter afghan homes for the purpose of military operations, except under extraordinary circumstances involving urgent risk to life and limb of US nationals. We will continue to make every effort to respect the sanctity and dignity of Afghans in their homes and in their daily lives, just as we do for our citizens.'
Potential deal-breaker avoidedAnother crucial clause gives America complete jurisdiction to try any US troops for crimes. This was a deal-breaker in Iraq in 2009, when Washington failed to get the same assurance and withdrew completely. The most infamous incident involving an American soldier in Afghanistan in recent times took place in March 2012. Staff Sergeant Robert Bales went on a murderous massacre killing 16 civilians and injuring 6 others in Panjwai district of Kandahar province. The soldier was sentenced to life in prison without the possibility of parole by a jury in Washington in August 2013.
Message to the TalibanAnalysts had criticised the US for announcing its 2014 troop drawdown well in advance giving the Taliban space to believe they would be no foreign troops after that. That let the Taliban, some experts argue, just wait till troops left to continue their battle against the regime. The BSA is intended to send a message to the Taliban that there will be a presence (possibly up to 15,000 troops) from 2015 to 2024 and possibly beyond. The world is watching whether this signal will propel the attempts to get them to the negotiating table. But, first the world is watching when President Karzai will sign the deal and how the US will react to his latest recalcitrance.