(Ashutosh joined the Aam Aadmi Party in January. The former journalist took on former Union minister Kapil Sibal and Health Minister Harsh Vardhan in the national election from Chandni Chowk in Delhi.)
The results of the assembly elections in Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir are a clear indicator that the Modi wave that resulted in massive electoral wins for the party in the Parliamentary elections is on the wane.
In Jharkhand this time, the BJP was very upbeat, supported by sympathetic pollsters who calculated that the BJP would get a huge majority but the final tally is much below that mark (37 of 81 assembly seats). J&K has been a bit disappointing for the BJP and its enthusiasts. The BJP had claimed that it would get a big victory in Kashmir and would give the start its first Hindu Chief Minister. It was very confident of making inroads in the Muslim-dominated Valley. Alas! It failed miserably in the Valley and also in the Buddhist-dominated Ladakh, its strength contained to the Hindu-majority Jammu region.
The most obvious question now doing the rounds in the corridors of power is what is the political message for the next battleground : Delhi. The BJP had been banking on the results in Jharkhand and Kashmir to create an atmosphere of invincibility, but the results clearly hint at a different story. Before analysing the impact in Delhi, we have to understand two things.
Firstly, it has to be understood that Delhi will be a fight between two parties unlike in Jharkhand and in J & K., where there were multi-cornered fights and the BJP was an obvious beneficiary. In Jharkhand, the main players apart from the BJP were the Congress, the JMM , the JVM and other smaller parties with localized areas of influence. Similarly, in Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP had to contest against the National Conference, the Peoples Democratic Party and the Congress. The BJP therefore could create a bigger impact with narrower margins.
Secondly, there is nothing new about these parties. They are traditional parties with a similar history and chemistry, and there is hardly any difference between them. And all of them behave the same way with minor aberrations. But Delhi can boast of a new party which has none of the characteristics of these traditional parties. The Aam Aadmi Party is a toddler in the game of politics; it is hardly two years old; it is the product of an anti-corruption movement; it has an unorthodox leadership; and its behavioural patterns are very different from parties like the Congress or the BJP. It can be said without doubt that it has changed the rules of the game with its unconventional ways.
It is this context which will help us understand better that the results in these two states are serious warning signals for the BJP and the Congress. These results are a bad omen for the Congress, which has been making vain announcements of bouncing back in Delhi. The people of India are not ready to forgive the Congress even now for the UPA2 misrule, and the Congress is seriously facing an existential crisis. There is a very distinct possibility that it might not open its account in Delhi. That will mean that Delhi will be a duel between the AAP and the BJP, and the Congress a marginal player of no consequence.
If the Congress shrinks further, in keeping with the signals, then it will be bad news for the BJP. In the context of a one-to-one contest, the BJP has normally been a loser. In the past 15 years, it failed miserably to give the Congress a tough fight in the Delhi elections. In these years, the BJP's vote share could not cross the critical mark to pose any serious challenge to Congress's dominance in the city. Even a marginal presence of the BSP was of no benefit to the BJP. Today, the Congress has replaced the BSP, and the BSP as a party has disappeared from the map of Delhi, which is a clear advantage to AAP. In fact, the combined social base of the Congress and the BSP has been replaced by AAP.
The counter argument can be that the BJP with its social base and the Modi factor can easily sail through. This argument does not have much bite for the following reasons:
1. The Modi wave is on a decline. The BJP's performance is not as overwhelming as was envisaged in these two states. The BJP was expecting 50 plus seats in Jharkhand and wanted to emerge as the single largest party in J & K; but in Jharkhand it could barely mange a majority with the help of a smaller ally where as in Kashmir it has to be satisfied with the tag of the second largest party with 25 seats which is much below expectations. Moreover, in both the states the BJP vote share has dipped by 8% points in comparison to the parliamentary elections. The trend was the same in the recently-held assembly elections in Maharashtra where the BJP could not win a majority on its own and finally had to reconcile with its old partner, the Shiv Sena.
2. Modi's governance in the last seven months has raised serious questions on the issue of delivery. Modi raised the expectation level too high and now there is a serious gap between his assurances and delivery. His government has failed to control price rise. There is no check on corruption. The government is over-centralised. No decisions are taken on time. No major economic reform has been carried out. manufacturing sector is in shambles despite the much-hyped Make-in-India campaign.
3. The BJP in Delhi is fighting with a political force which has a much better record as a government. In a short span of 49 days, the AAP government in Delhi was able to bring down corruption, electricity and water tarriffs. Decisions were swift and fast. AAP ministers and MLAs are spotless. None of them could be charged with corruption unlike their BJP counter-parts. Several opinion polls have shown more than 60% approval rating of AAP's government which is phenomenal.
4. The BJP has serious leadership problems in Delhi. AAP has Arvind Kejriwal who commands a huge fan following in the city. The BJP has no leader match his popularity.
The writing on the wall is clear. It is no wonder that the BJP has put off elections in Delhi for so long.
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