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Rana Ayyub is an award-winning investigative journalist and political writer. She is working on a book on Prime Minister Narendra Modi which will be published in 2015.)
A few days ago, Bharat Kumar Raut of the Shiv Sena tweeted "Shiv Sainiks put up boards appealing leaders to show self-respect. Hope @ShivSena leadership takes signals & prepare to sit in opposition."
Raut, a former Rajya Sabha MP who has also been a veteran journalist with various Marathi dailies, knew that this statement of dissent would not have been tolerated had party founder Bal Thackeray been alive. Internal dissent is not characteristic of the Shiv Sena.
The patriarch had an iron hold over his party, named for the army (sena) of iconic Maratha warrior-king Shivaji. Bal Thackeray's Dusshera rallies held in suburban Mumbai commanded fear and awe amongst his followers every year with his unwavering stand and a confident tenor. His reticent, photographer son Uddhav had not inherited his charisma; his demeanor reeked of diffidence in his public interactions. Had his cousin Raj Thackeray not rebelled, he could have well held the reins to the party. But instead, Raj chose to split and founded his own party, the MNS, in 2006.
This year has delivered learnings for both cousins, more importantly Uddhav Thackeray.
The Shiv Sena, whose parochial approach has included communal and caste-based violence in the state (its leaders always citing the welfare of the Marathi manoos or the locals) has been serving as the opposition in Maharashtra for the last three terms. Although the Shiv Sena sent eighteen MPs to parliament this year - its best-ever performance - the party is facing a credibility crisis. Uddhav Thackeray, its leader, has been downgraded in the past few weeks from a man in the running for Chief Minister to a politician trying to clutch at straws for his survival.
A little anecdote at this point needs to be shared. On the eve of the Lok Sabha polls in May this year, the Sena mouthpiece Saamna wrote an editorial critical of the BJP, and Narendra Modi in particular, by targeting Gujaratis in the city of Mumbai.
The edit said 'The affluent classes living in Malabar Hill, Walkeshwar, Cuffe Parade, Colaba and Juhu have never participated in Maharashtra Day celebrations observed on May 1. They have built castles of prosperity by exploiting Mumbai like a whore and now they are drafting strategies on whom to install in the chair of Prime Minister and whom to pull down.'
The timing of the edit, published just before Mumbai voted, was important. The Sena needed to strengthen its position to bargain at the Centre and later at the State for a share of power. However, soon after it was published, Sena leaders distanced themselves from the comment suggesting Sanjay Raut, the editor, spokesperson and then Rajya Sabha member, had not consulted senior party leaders. Raut himself was in Russia vacationing with family and sources suggest that it was he who had wanted Uddhav to take a strong stand pitting the party against the BJP.
However, Uddhav, who had initially bought the idea of showcasing Marathi wrath, went soft post the furore, even commenting that Modi would be the last word on the state elections in Maharashtra. An embarrassed Raut took the heat and called the editorial his personal point of view.
With anti-incumbency looming large over the state, Uddhav and his party managed to get 18 seats in the national election, enough to make it a strategic player in Delhi. However, the party which had not been shy of making known its affection for the BJP's Sushma Swaraj and LK Advani was in for a rude shock when Uddhav confided in senior party functionaries that after the results were declared on May 16, his calls were unanswered by the Prime Minister's Office.
Uddhav was then warned again by his party leaders including Raut and his affluent political secretary Milind Narvekar that the Sena could not cede ground to the BJP if it was serious about strengthening its position in the state. The round of scathing editorials began, targeting the BJP and often, the Prime Minister. Uddhav's blow hot-blow cold attitude towards the BJP continued in public, culminating in September's split between the allies in Maharashtra.
Cousin Raj Thackeray's regressive politics was given a huge thumbs down by the state, which had now begun to ask questions about crony capitalism and nepotism. There were two camps in the Sena. One wanted to sit in the opposition and consolidate its position by sticking to its ideological stance; the other, which included party veterans like Subhash and Anil Desai, suggested that the Sena could not afford to serve as the opposition for a fourth consecutive term and should realign with the BJP.
Uddhav's lack of political acumen was on visible display. As usual, he oscillated between the two thought processes. At a press conference right after the Maharashtra results, he remained firm about wanting the BJP to make the first move and send a proposal to him for a possible reunion. But his assertiveness was jerked around with every BJP statement and soon, his party was almost prostrate before the BJP.
The Sena has never appeared more desperate than this week when it has almost offered unconditional support to the BJP in the state. From negotiating over the Chief Minister's post - and when that was clearly ruled out, demanding the office of Deputy Chief Minister - the Sena later dialed down its demands to the portfolios of Home and Public Works.
Unlike the Gandhi family, where the blame for Rahul's failure is shouldered by a phalanx of ever-ready powerless party leaders, Uddhav has no alibi. The man who took over the mantle from his father has learnt his lesson the hard way - politics cannot be played half-heartedly. Uddhav's dilemma and his diffident approach made way for a confident BJP to be the single-largest party including in the Marathi strongholds.
The mood at the Sena headquarters in Dadar in Mumbai which was once a symbol of power and brash Maratha pride has now turned gloomy thanks to a weak manifestation of its flawed ideals. The glue which had brought the Marathi manoos to the Sena was its firm, if flawed, resolution. That resolution has lost its heft in immature politics and worse, a reluctant leader.
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