New Delhi:
The Supreme Court is expected to give its verdict today on cancelling the bail of Amit Shah, former minister and close aide of Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, in the 2005 Sohrabuddin Sheikh fake encounter case, and whether to shift the trial to Mumbai.
The CBI had petitioned the court for cancellation of Mr Shah's bail on the grounds that he may try to influence witnesses in the case.
Sohrabuddin and his wife Kauser Bi were allegedly abducted by the Gujarat's Anti-Terrorist Squad (ATS) from Hyderabad and killed in a fake encounter near Gandhinagar in November 2005.
Mr Shah was arrested by the CBI on July 25, 2010 and had spent over three months in Sabarmati Jail in Ahmedabad. He had to quit the Modi government in July last year after having been slapped with kidnapping and murder charges in the fake encounter killing. Mr Shah is currently out on bail but has been barred by the Supreme Court from entering the state. In an election year, how critical is his return for the BJP and Mr Modi in particular?
The party leaders don't want to say on record but they admit that the absence of Amit Shah could mean trouble for the Chief Minister. He is considered not just an important strategist for the party but a crisis manager for Mr Modi.
Post-2002, Mr Shah played a key role in Mr Modi's political planning. He also ensured the BJP's growing clout in the milk cooperatives that were traditionally Congress held.
"It's fine that Mr Modi himself is a strategist, but Shah has ensured party's immense strength in cooperatives, cricket associations and urban municipal corporations. That's why his absence could prove a big hurdle for Mr Modi during elections," said Ganshyam Shah, a political analyst.
But what comes as another blow to Mr Shah's supporters is the CBI filing a chargesheet against him in Tulsiram Prajapati case and his imminent arrest which could mean his political isolation. The Opposition hopes to draw electoral mileage out of this.
"One minister is behind bars for riots, another finds himself in the middle of a fake encounter. It's clearly an embarrassment for the BJP," said Congress spokesman Manish Doshi.
The CBI had said that Mr Prajapati was a witness in the Sohrabuddin case and his killing was part of a larger conspiracy in which Mr Shah, as the then head of the state administration, was involved.
Mr Shah's supporters want him to reclaim his clout in state politics which has of late seen domination by another aide of Mr Modi, senior minister Anandiben Patel. But faced with arrest, it's clearly tough times for Amit Shah, the once powerful politician of Gujarat.