The Next Big Climate Question: Will India Follow China?

For more than 20 years, international climate talks have been dominated by a schism between those who created the problem of climate change (largely the United States and nations of the European Union) and those who would greatly contribute to it moving forward (largely China and India). But as climate negotiators meet in Lima, Peru, this week and next, and news reports are full of gloomy predictions that the negotiations will produce little, there are increasing signs that this stalemate may have been broken. This emerging shift is due in large part to China and its decision to break ranks and join the United States in making commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

One critical question now is whether India - the country that has stood by China's side in climate talks and is now the world's third-largest emitter - will follow suit in a meaningful way at the Lima negotiations. And there seems to be a surprisingly high chance that India will.

China and India share a common domestic problem - one that has motivated China's leaders to act, and could motivate India's. That is, the fossil fuels that cause climate change also produce local air pollution. This has risen to deadly levels, with all of the Chinese and Indian cities that the World Health Organization monitors for air pollution failing the organization's test for acceptable levels of airborne particulate, widely believed to be the most dangerous air pollutant for human health. More than half of these cities also fail their own countries' particulates standards.

This pollution shortens lives and, in the process, undermines the economic growth emerging economies urgently need, as I and other researchers concluded in a recent study. Comparing China's pollution in the north - where it's worse, because of subsidies for coal heating in the winter - with the south, we found the north experienced reductions in life spans of about five years. That means people living in northern China are losing many billions of years of life expectancy because of heavy pollution. Keep in mind that southern China also has high pollution levels, which very likely reduces life spans there, too.

Because of this pollution, Chinese citizens have called for change, speaking out online and holding protests. The government has responded with actions, perhaps most notably the declaration by Li Keqiang, China's premier, of a "war on pollution." The leaders have realized that cleaner air decreases rates of sickness, in turn reducing health care costs, increasing time at work and presumably making people more productive while they are there. It also increases life spans, meaning more years citizens can contribute to the economy.

The result is that China's policies to reduce particulates air pollution for the well-being of its people has been a part of, not counter to, its economic agenda. Moving away from coal and other fossil fuels also reduces the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change, which has allowed China to confront two problems at once.

India could be next. Over the last several weeks, India's prime minister, Narendra Modi, has publicly recognized his country's serious pollution problem, which may actually be worse than in China. First, he announced his intention to make air quality data available to the public. Last week, his administration said it would announce new emissions standards for power plants.

India, like China, has a tremendous opportunity to improve the well-being of its citizens. If the regions of India that violate its own particulates air pollution standard were brought into compliance, the 660 million people currently living in these higher-pollution areas would see their life expectancy increase by an average of 3.2 years, for an overall gain of roughly 2 billion life years, according to our study. This action can in turn be part of India's economic strategy, contributing to a healthier, longer-working labor force and reduced medical bills.

For years, climate negotiations have involved richer and poorer countries telling each other what they must or should do for the common good. I find it unlikely that American negotiators suddenly found the right words to persuade China to announce a new policy.

Far more likely, an increasing awareness of the high levels of air pollution and its costs inside China caused the leadership to conclude that moving away from fossil fuels was in its own interest.

Whatever the climate benefits for the planet, and they're potentially large, they are not driving China's decision.

But results matters more than motives. If India follows China - and the countries make good on their pledges - it's possible that history books will ultimately judge this moment as a turning point when the world first collectively took meaningful actions to confront climate change.