(Swapan Dasgupta is a Delhi-based political commentator with avowedly right-wing inclinations)Given the passions they generate, there is often an inclination to convert every election into an epic battle of Kurukshetra. The conclusion of the battle isn't always decisive, since there is often a draw and the vanquished invariably live to fight (often successfully) five years later. However, the Mahahabharat analogy holds good in at least one respect: a central plot defines the electoral battle but there are numerous, riveting sub-plots.
The battle for Maharashtra that will culminate later this month, either conclusively or with a fractured mandate, is fascinating in many respects.
No doubt the most important issue is to determine which party or post-poll alliance will control the Mantralaya for the next five years. Since Maharashtra is arguably India's richest state, this is not an inconsequential issue.
Secondly, since this is the first election in recent memory when the five main parties are battling on their own steam, the results will determine the character of future alliances. In previous elections, the Congress and the Shiv Sena were the two poles around which Maharashtra politics played out. Will they retain their status or be upstaged by others?
In my opinion, the most interesting sub-plot centres on the battle for Balasaheb Thackeray's Marathi manoos legacy.
The Shiv Sena took a calculated, if somewhat reckless gamble to snap ties with the BJP. In the first electoral battle after Balasaheb's death, Uddhav Thackeray believed that he needed to establish his regional primacy in the wider Hindutva parivar. He feared that if the BJP somehow got the upper hand, the Shiv Sena would be reduced to a subordinate status. The BJP, on the strength of inputs provided by opinion polls, chose to call his bluff and went its own way.
If the mid-campaign opinion polls are any guide, it would seem that the BJP enjoys a clear advantage over the Shiv Sena. If the popular votes translate into seats, Uddhav may have some explaining to do as to why he punched above his weight during the seat negotiations with the BJP. Shouldn't he have settled for a symbolic advantage in the distribution of seats?
However, it is unlikely that any post-mortem exercise will be conducted only with reference to an ascendant BJP. The post-election deliberations in the Shiv Sena will also be determined by how Raj Thackeray and his MNS fare in the Assembly polls.
So far, despite the charismatic advantage he enjoys over his cousin, Raj has not succeeded in securing the loyalty of the majority of Shiv Sainiks. As long as Balasaheb was alive, the foot-soldiers of the Sena chose to remain with the parent organisation. That situation has persisted till now and the MNS's confused stand and indifferent performance in the general election perpetuated the status-quo.
A fascinating dimension of the post-poll situation will centre on the behaviour of a chastened Shiv Sena. If Uddhav is content to re-create the alliance with the BJP, with the Sena as a much junior partner, how will the rank-and-file of his party react?
I would hazard the guess that there could be a movement of the impetuous, younger Sainiks into the MNS with its clear agitational agenda. At the same time, if the BJP becomes the dominant force in large tracts of rural Maharashtra, many Shiv Sena activists outside Greater Mumbai and Konkan could switch their loyalty to the BJP. For his continuing relevance Uddhav may need to latch on to the coat-tails of the BJP and even participate in a BJP-led coalition government. But will access to government patronage be enough to ward off the encroachments of the MNS into the old Sena space?
The larger effects of Balasaheb Thackeray's death will be felt in the next few months.
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