This Article is From Apr 16, 2014

How compelling could Priyanka, the politician, be?

New Delhi: (Ashok Malik is a columnist and writer living in Delhi)

Speculation about Priyanka Gandhi joining politics is perennial. Many in the Congress, including senior leaders, say they hope she takes charge as her brother, Rahul Gandhi, has proved a disappointment. There are both negative and positive reasons for this wish. The negative reason is the party old guard - including senior counsellors of his mother, Sonia Gandhi, the Congress president - doesn't quite get along with Rahul. It believes he ignores advice. The positive reason - critics would term it clutching at straws - is in the belief that Priyanka is regarded as more of a people's person and more comfortable with crowds.(India Votes 2014: Full Coverage)

To be fair, that final point is difficult to ascertain. Most people don't know the Gandhi siblings, and particularly not Priyanka, since her involvement with mass politics has been peripheral. On her part, she has repeatedly said her focus is limited to helping her mother and brother and to the two family seats of Raebareli and Amethi. (Rahul thinks I should run for Lok Sabha, decision not to is mine: Priyanka Gandhi Vadra to NDTV)

How compelling a political figure is or could be Priyanka? One has to see that question in context. Priyanka's big moment came in 1999, when she ran a short, quick campaign in Raebareli. She sought votes for Satish Sharma (Congress) and took on Arun Nehru, her estranged uncle, who had joined the BJP. Till Priyanka's arrival, Nehru was the front-runner and Sharma looking at a fourth-place humiliation. A fervid Priyanka campaign swung the Brahmin vote for "Indira Gandhi's granddaughter". Arun Nehru got a drubbing.

For this writer, covering the election, Raebareli in 1999 offered an unforgettable lesson on the power and pull of nostalgia and emotionalism. These forces could turn rational political calculations on their head.

Those who gush about Priyanka's political potential often cite that Raebareli storm as evidence. However, it needs to be recognised that in 1999, the Gandhi family had been out of power - and out of formal politics - for about a decade. For party workers and sympathisers, especially those who had benefited from Congress patronage in Amethi-Raebareli, Priyanka and her mother and brother represented a memory of happier times

It would be much more difficult to invoke that mix of heady emotions while campaigning for a party that has been ruling for 10 years and faces severe anti-incumbency. That is a problem for Rahul in 2014. Many of his remarks and mannerisms, which would have been overlooked in say 1999 or 2000, and perhaps been indulged or described as "charming" by suitable cheerleaders, are today mocked. The appeal has been jaded by 10 years of indifferent governance.

In that sense, could Priyanka really have taken the Congress to new heights in 2014, had she and not Rahul been party leader? It is difficult to see how. The past decade would have been a burden and a challenge for her as well. One got an indication of this as early as 2012 itself. Canvassing in the Amethi-Raebareli belt, Priyanka drew far smaller crowds than she ever had. This anticipated a massive Congress defeat in the Uttar Pradesh assembly election.

From this week, Priyanka is stationing herself in Amethi to help her brother retain his seat. Ground assessments suggest this election could be Rahul's toughest yet; even a victory with a significantly reduced majority would be a setback. Priyanka will have to use her managerial and people skills in an election where her strongest weapons - nostalgia and memory - are actually going against the Nehru-Gandhis.

Matters have been complicated by the presence of her cousin Varun Gandhi as the BJP candidate from neighbouring and socially contiguous Sultanpur. There is a perception that the two will not cross swords and not campaign against each other. Varun is running a family and legacy outreach programme of his own. He is the one BJP candidate in the country who does not seem to be invoking Narendra Modi. BJP sources say "NaMo vans" sent to Sultanpur are lying parked and unused. (Varun Gandhi has gone astray, show him the right path, says cousin Priyanka)

If such talk of a tacit understanding is true, it could have intriguing implications. In Amethi, Priyanka and Rahul are depending on support from Sanjay Singh, member of the former princely family. In Sultanpur, Varun's rival from the Congress is Amita Singh, Sanjay's wife. How will Priyanka square the circle?

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